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The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy

Editor-in-Chief: Jürges, Hendrik / Ludwig, Sandra

Ed. by Auriol , Emmanuelle / Brunner, Johann / Fleck, Robert / Friebel, Guido / Mendola, Mariapia / Requate, Till / Tsui, Kevin / Wichardt, Philipp / Zulehner, Christine

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Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections: Who Blames Whom for What

Daniel Eisenberg1 / Jonathan Ketcham2

1University of Michigan,

2University of Southern California,

Citation Information: Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy. Volume 4, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1538-0653, DOI: 10.2202/1538-0653.1285, August 2004

Publication History

Published Online:
2004-08-17

Abstract

In United States presidential elections, the incumbent party’s fortunes depend significantly on recent economic conditions, as numerous studies have shown. Many details of how economic voting takes place, however, are still not well understood. Here we present evidence on four issues. 1) Which is more important for determining people’s votes, national or local economic conditions? 2) What time frame do people consider in economic voting? 3) Which demographic groups are most sensitive to the economy in their voting behavior? 4) How does economic voting depend on the political context—in particular, whether a candidate is running for re-election, and whether the incumbent party also controls Congress? Our study includes the first county-level analysis of economic voting in presidential elections. We find the answers to our four questions are: 1) national conditions, by far; 2) the most recent year; 3) blacks, females, and the non-elderly; and 4) no.

Keywords: economic voting; president; presidential election

Citing Articles

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[1]
JOHN R. WRIGHT
American Political Science Review, 2012, Volume 106, Number 04, Page 685
[2]
Brad T. Gomez and Thomas G. Hansford
Political Behavior, 2015, Volume 37, Number 2, Page 309
[3]
Stephen Ansolabehere, Marc Meredith, and Erik Snowberg
Economics & Politics, 2014, Volume 26, Number 3, Page 380
[4]
Rodrigo Martins and Francisco José Veiga
Public Choice, 2013, Volume 155, Number 3-4, Page 317
[6]
Paola Conconi and Nicolas Sahuguet
Journal of Public Economics, 2009, Volume 93, Number 3-4, Page 549

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