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Publication Date:
March 2006
ISSN:
1935-1690
DOI:
10.2202/1534-5998.1401

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Abraham, Arpad / Carceles-Poveda , Eva / Cavalcanti, Tiago / Kambourov, Gueorgui / Lambertini, Luisa / Ruhl, Kim / Tavares, Jose

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics

1 Issue per year

IMPACT FACTOR 2011: 0.321

 

How Tight Should One's Hands be Tied? Fear of Floating and the Credibility of Exchange Rate Regimes

Jesús Rodríguez-López1 / Hugo Rodriguez Mendizabal2

1jrodlop@upo.es

2Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, hugo.rodriguez@uab.es

Citation Information: Topics in Macroeconomics. Volume 6, Issue 1, Pages 1–25, ISSN (Online) 1534-5998, DOI: 10.2202/1534-5998.1401, March 2006

Publication History:
Published Online:
2006-03-13

The literature on exchange rate regimes has recently observed that officially self-declared free floaters intervene strongly in foreign exchange markets to maintain their nominal exchange rates within some unannounced bands. In this paper, we provide an explanation of this behavior, labeled by Calvo and Reinhart as fear of floating. First, we analyze the linkages between the credibility of the exchange rate regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the band width of fluctuations. Second, we use the model to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most ERM countries after their target zones widened in August 1993. Finally, we solve the model for a subgame perfect equilibrium, in which fear of floating can be viewed as the credible choice of a finite non-zero band.

Keywords: Fear of floating; target zones; exchange rate arrangements; credibility

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