The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
Editor-in-Chief: Cavalcanti, Tiago / Mertens, Karel
Ed. by Abraham, Arpad / Carceles-Poveda , Eva / Debortoli, Davide / Kambourov, Gueorgui / Lambertini, Luisa / Pavoni, Nicola / Ruhl, Kim / Nimark, Kristoffer / Wang, Pengfei
IMPACT FACTOR increased in 2014: 0.389
5-year IMPACT FACTOR: 0.406
SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2014: 0.610
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2014: 0.518
Impact per Publication (IPP) 2014: 0.419
Volume 16 (2016)
Volume 14 (2014)
Volume 13 (2013)
Volume 12 (2012)
Volume 11 (2011)
Volume 10 (2010)
Volume 9 (2009)
Volume 8 (2008)
Volume 7 (2007)
Volume 5 (2005)
Volume 4 (2004)
Volume 3 (2003)
Volume 2 (2002)
Most Downloaded Articles
- Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market by Case, Karl E./ Quigley, John M. and Shiller, Robert J.
- Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms by Kannan, Prakash/ Rabanal, Pau and Scott, Alasdair M.
- Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending Across Countries by Beck, Thorsten/ Büyükkarabacak, Berrak/ Rioja, Felix K. and Valev, Neven T.
- The Effects of the Great Recession on Central Bank Doctrine and Practice by Bernanke, Ben S.
Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle
1Brandeis University, (email)
Citation Information: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Volume 12, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, DOI: 10.1515/1935-1690.2276, January 2012
- Published Online:
I compare unemployment expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to VAR forecastable movements in unemployment. I document three key facts: First, one-half to one-third of the population expects unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession, even though the VAR predicts the fall in unemployment. Second, more people expect unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession than expect it to rise when it is rising at the beginning of a recession even though the VAR predicts these changes. Finally, the lag change in unemployment is almost as important as the VAR forecast in predicting the fraction of the population that expects unemployment to rise. Professional forecasters do not exhibit these discrepancies. Least squares learning or real time expectations do little to help explain these facts. However, delayed updating of expectations can explain some of these facts, and extrapolative expectations explains these facts best. Individuals with higher income or education are only slightly less likely to have expectations which differ from the VAR, and those whose expect more unemployment when the VAR predicts otherwise are 8-10 percent more likely to believe it is a bad time to make a major purchase.
Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.