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- Richer Parties, Better Politics? Party-Centered Campaign Finance Laws and American Democracy by La Raja, Raymond J.
- The Catholics and the Others: The Denominational Backdrop to Modern American Politics by Shafer, Byron E. and Spady, Richard H.
- What the Filibuster Tells Us About the Senate by Schickler, Eric and Wawro, Gregory J.
- The Citizens United Election? Or Same As It Ever Was? by Franz, Michael M
- The Return of the Voter: Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election by McDonald, Michael P.
The Economic Records of the Presidents: Party Differences and Inherited Economic Conditions
1University at Buffalo, SUNY
Citation Information: The Forum. Volume 9, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1540-8884, DOI: 10.2202/1540-8884.1429, April 2011
- Published Online:
Several studies of the post-war American political economy find that Democratic presidents have been more successful than Republicans. Most recently, Bartels (2008) found that economic growth had been greater and that unemployment and income inequality had been lower under Democratic presidents since 1948. If true, these findings combined with the frequent success of Republicans in presidential elections pose a challenge to theories of retrospective voting and responsible party government. This reexamination of these findings indicates that they are an artifact of specification error. Previous estimates did not properly take into account the lagged effects of the economy. Once lagged economic effects are taken into account, party differences in economic performance are shown to be the effects of economic conditions inherited from the previous president and not the consequence of real policy differences. Specifically, the economy was in recession when Republican presidents became responsible for the economy in each of the four post-1948 transitions from Democratic to Republican presidents. This was not the case for the transitions from Republicans to Democrats. When economic conditions leading into a year are taken into account, there are no presidential party differences with respect to growth, unemployment, or income inequality.