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Most Downloaded Articles
- Study of the Technical and Tactical Variables Determining Set Win or Loss in Top-Level European Men's Volleyball by Rodriguez-Ruiz, David/ Quiroga, Miriam E./ Miralles, Jose A./ Sarmiento, Samuel/ de Saá, Yves and García-Manso, Juan M.
- Does Effectiveness of Skill in Complex I Predict Win in Men's Olympic Volleyball Games? by Zetou, Eleni/ Moustakidis, Athanasios/ Tsigilis, Nikolaos and Komninakidou, Andromahi
- A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics by Kubatko, Justin/ Oliver, Dean/ Pelton, Kevin and Rosenbaum, Dan T
- The Dreaded Middle Seeds - Are They the Worst Seeds in the NCAA Basketball Tournament? by Morris, Tracy L. and Bokhari, Faryal H.
- Comparing and Forecasting Performances in Different Events of Athletics Using a Probabilistic Model by Godsey, Brian
Why On-Base Percentage is a Better Indicator of Future Performance than Batting Average: An Algebraic Proof
1CUNY Graduate School and University Center
Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 4, Issue 2, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1101, April 2008
- Published Online:
Batting Average (AVG) and On-Base Percentage (OBP) are two of the most commonly cited statistics in baseball. Existing research has demonstrated that for a team, OBP is more closely correlated to runs scored than is AVG, and secondly, for players, OBP is more closely correlated over time than is AVG. We offer an algebraic explanation for the latter phenomenon. Specifically, we will prove that batting average depends more heavily upon a particularly unpredictable variable, hits per balls in play (HPBP), than does OBP. This result will explain why for both batters and pitchers, on-base percentage is a better indicator of future performance than batting average.