Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
An official journal of the American Statistical Association
Editor-in-Chief: Mark Glickman PhD
SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2014: 0.265
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2014: 0.513
Impact per Publication (IPP) 2014: 0.452
Volume 12 (2016)
Volume 11 (2015)
Volume 10 (2014)
Volume 9 (2013)
Volume 5 (2009)
Volume 1 (2005)
Most Downloaded Articles
- Creating space to shoot: quantifying spatial relative field goal efficiency in basketball by Shortridge, Ashton/ Goldsberry, Kirk and Adams, Matthew
- A generative model for predicting outcomes in college basketball by Ruiz, Francisco J. R. and Perez-Cruz, Fernando
- Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football League by Mulholland, Jason and Jensen, Shane T.
- Building an NCAA men’s basketball predictive model and quantifying its success by Lopez, Michael J. and Matthews, Gregory J.
- Introduction to the NCAA men’s basketball prediction methods issue by Glickman, Mark E. and Sonas, Jeff
Quantifying NFL Coaching: A Proof of New Growth Theory
Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 4, Issue 3, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1091, July 2008
- Published Online:
New Growth Theory is the science of research, knowledge, and designs. The foundation of New Growth Theory is that technological change, improvement in the instructions for mixing resources, lies at the heart of growth and improvement. Designs are the instructions that turn resources into useful things. The combination of professional baseball history and professional football history teaches us that growth in the National Football League (NFL) springs from better designs such as the Green Bay Packers' power sweep and the San Francisco 49ers' rhythm passing. This paper demonstrates that although football design architectures differ, the outcome of all useful designs is identical: The creation of the same non-rival 2-to-1 edge that the pitcher and catcher (the battery) continuously enjoy over a hitter in baseball. This paper's main conclusions are that, at maximum efficiency, NFL coaching research accounts for more than 25% of the team's efficiency and superior human capital engaged in production (playing) accounts for less than 15% of efficiency. In other words, research and play design contributes more to an NFL team's efficiency than play-making contributes. An NFL growth rate is equal to the productivity of a coaching staffs research and represents a directional vector. If an NFL teams growth rate is greater than 100%, it is likely the team is getting better continuously. Such an improving NFL team will generate increasing returns and enjoy an absolute competitive edge over competitors whose research productivity is less than or equal to 100%. Super Bowl results demonstrate that an NFL team that can sustain such growth and avoid turnovers is virtually unbeatable.