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Publication Date:
March 2012
ISSN:
1559-0410
DOI:
10.1515/1559-0410.1418

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VolumeIssuePage

Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models

Anthony Costa Constantinou / Norman Elliott Fenton

1Queen Mary, University of London

1Queen Mary, University of London

Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 8, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1418, March 2012

Publication History:
Published Online:
2012-03-12

Despite the massive popularity of probabilistic (association) football forecasting models, and the relative simplicity of the outcome of such forecasts (they require only three probability values corresponding to home win, draw, and away win) there is no agreed scoring rule to determine their forecast accuracy. Moreover, the various scoring rules used for validation in previous studies are inadequate since they fail to recognise that football outcomes represent a ranked (ordinal) scale. This raises severe concerns about the validity of conclusions from previous studies. There is a well-established generic scoring rule, the Rank Probability Score (RPS), which has been missed by previous researchers, but which properly assesses football forecasting models.

Keywords: association football forecasting; forecast assessment; forecast verification; predictive evaluation; probability forecasting; rank probability score; sports forecasting

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