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Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

Editor-in-Chief: Albert, Jim

4 Issues per year

The Sensitivity of College Football Rankings to Several Modeling Choices

Andrew T. Karl1

1Arizona State University

Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 8, Issue 3, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1471, October 2012

Publication History:
Published Online:
2012-10-09

Abstract

This paper proposes a multiple-membership generalized linear mixed model for ranking college football teams using only their win/loss records. The model results in an intractable, high-dimensional integral due to the random effects structure and nonlinear link function. We use recent data sets to explore the effect of the choice of integral approximation and other modeling assumptions on the rankings. Varying the modeling assumptions sometimes leads to changes in the team rankings that could affect bowl assignments.

Keywords: BCS; EM algorithm; fully exponential Laplace approximation; generalized linear mixed model; multiple membership

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