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The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy

Editor-in-Chief: Jürges, Hendrik / Ludwig, Sandra

Ed. by Auriol , Emmanuelle / Brunner, Johann / Fleck, Robert / Friebel, Guido / Mendola, Mariapia / Requate, Till / Tsui, Kevin / Wichardt, Philipp / Zulehner, Christine

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Protection and the Business Cycle

Kyle Bagwell1 / Robert W. Staiger2

1Columbia University,

2University of Wisconsin, Madison,

Citation Information: Advances in Economic Analysis & Policy. Volume 3, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1538-0637, DOI: 10.2202/1538-0637.1139, September 2003

Publication History

Published Online:
2003-09-24

Abstract

Empirical studies have repeatedly documented the countercyclical nature of trade barriers. In this paper, we propose a simple theoretical framework that is consistent with this and other empirical regularities in the relationship between protection and the business cycle. Focusing on self-enforcing trade agreements, we find theoretical support for countercyclical movements in protection levels. The fast growth in trade volume that is associated with a boom phase facilitates the maintenance of more liberal trade policies than can be sustained during a recession phase in which growth is slow. We also find that acyclic increases in the level of trade volume give rise to protection, implying that whether rising imports are met with greater liberalization or increased protection depends on whether they are part of a cyclic upward trend in trade volume or an acyclic increase in import levels.

Keywords: Protection; Business Cycle; GATT; WTO; Repeated Game

Citing Articles

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[1]
Richard Chisik
Journal of International Economics, 2012, Volume 88, Number 1, Page 47
[2]
Andrew K. Rose
Economic Policy, 2013, Volume 28, Number 76, Page 569
[3]
Chrysostomos Tabakis
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2015, Page 1
[4]
Chad P. Bown and Meredith A. Crowley
Journal of International Economics, 2013, Volume 90, Number 1, Page 50
[5]
Marcus M. Opp
Journal of International Economics, 2010, Volume 80, Number 2, Page 212
[6]
Gal Hochman and Ella Segev
International Economic Review, 2010, Volume 51, Number 1, Page 187

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