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Publication Date:
September 2005
ISSN:
1935-1690
DOI:
10.2202/1534-6005.1206

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Abraham, Arpad / Carceles-Poveda , Eva / Cavalcanti, Tiago / Kambourov, Gueorgui / Lambertini, Luisa / Ruhl, Kim / Tavares, Jose

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics

1 Issue per year

IMPACT FACTOR 2011: 0.321

 

How Well Does the New Keynesian Sticky-Price Model Fit the Data?

John M. Roberts1

1Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, jroberts@frb.gov

Citation Information: Contributions in Macroeconomics. Volume 5, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1534-6005, DOI: 10.2202/1534-6005.1206, September 2005

Publication History:
Published Online:
2005-09-20

A number of hypotheses have been proposed to account for the role of lagged inflation in the New Keynesian price-adjustment model: (1) In the aftermath of abrupt structural change, rational learning may appear adaptive. (2) The model may have a serially correlated error term. (3) Estimating the model conditional on labor costs may remove or reduce the need for lagged inflation. I address the empirical support for these hypotheses and find that none eliminates the need for lagged inflation. In particular, lagged inflation enters with a coefficient in the range of 0.4 to 0.5, regardless of whether labor's share or detrended output is the measure of real marginal cost, or whether a serially correlated error term is allowed. Also, eliminating the period 1980-83 from the sample does not reduce the coefficient on lagged inflation.

Keywords: Inflation; Phillips curve; New Keynesian economics

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