A number of hypotheses have been proposed to account for the role of lagged inflation in the New Keynesian price-adjustment model: (1) In the aftermath of abrupt structural change, rational learning may appear adaptive. (2) The model may have a serially correlated error term. (3) Estimating the model conditional on labor costs may remove or reduce the need for lagged inflation. I address the empirical support for these hypotheses and find that none eliminates the need for lagged inflation. In particular, lagged inflation enters with a coefficient in the range of 0.4 to 0.5, regardless of whether labor's share or detrended output is the measure of real marginal cost, or whether a serially correlated error term is allowed. Also, eliminating the period 1980-83 from the sample does not reduce the coefficient on lagged inflation.

Abraham, Arpad / Carceles-Poveda , Eva / Cavalcanti, Tiago / Kambourov, Gueorgui / Lambertini, Luisa / Ruhl, Kim / Tavares, Jose
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1Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, jroberts@frb.gov
Citation Information: Contributions in Macroeconomics. Volume 5, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1534-6005, DOI: 10.2202/1534-6005.1206, September 2005
Publication History:
- Published Online:
- 2005-09-20
Keywords: Inflation; Phillips curve; New Keynesian economics


















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