This paper evaluates quantitatively the impact of the observed demographic transition on aggregate variables (factor prices, saving rate, output growth), and on inter-generational welfare in developing economies. It does so by developing a large-scale two-region equilibrium overlapping generations model calibrated to the North (more developed countries) and the South (less developed countries). The paper highlights that the effects of the demographic trends for less developed regions may depend on the degree of international capital mobility and on the extent to which the large Pay-As-You-Go systems in place in the more developed world will be reformed.

Abraham, Arpad / Carceles-Poveda , Eva / Cavalcanti, Tiago / Kambourov, Gueorgui / Lambertini, Luisa / Ruhl, Kim / Tavares, Jose
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Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies
1University College London, o.attanasio@ucl.ac.uk
2New York University, sagiri.kitao@ny.frb.org
3New York University, gianluca.violante@nyu.edu
Citation Information: Advances in Macroeconomics. Volume 6, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1534-6013, DOI: 10.2202/1534-6013.1298, April 2006
Publication History:
- Published Online:
- 2006-04-13
Keywords: capital flows; demographic transition; developing economies; growth; social security; welfare


















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