We construct a dynamic error correction model of the Australian labor market using a macroeconomic panel across seven states from 1972:3 to 1999:1. Medium-run equilibrium estimates support a real wage-productivity gap and an unemployment gap. The dynamic short-run estimates support expectations-augmented Phillips curves for wages and prices, and demand-led employment growth. We compare three procedures pooled, aggregate and mean group estimates. Considerable heterogeneity existed across states in the pooled procedure, and state-level variables had a significant impact in the aggregate procedure. Out-of-sample aggregate forecasting for the pooled, aggregate and mean group procedures suggests that the pooled one performs best.

Abraham, Arpad / Carceles-Poveda , Eva / Cavalcanti, Tiago / Kambourov, Gueorgui / Lambertini, Luisa / Ruhl, Kim / Tavares, Jose
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To Pool or to Aggregate? Tests with a Dynamic Panel Macroeconometric Model of Australian State Labor Markets
1Indira Gandhi Institute of Developmental Research, kausik@igidr.ac.in
2University of Sydney, jeffs@econ.usyd.edu.au
Citation Information: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Volume 7, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, DOI: 10.2202/1935-1690.1365, January 2007
Publication History:
- Published Online:
- 2007-01-15
Keywords: panel cointegration; panel macroeconometric modeling; Australian state labor markets; aggregation


















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