Volume 13 (2013)
Volume 12 (2012)
Volume 11 (2011)
Volume 10 (2010)
Volume 9 (2009)
Volume 8 (2008)
Volume 7 (2007)
Volume 5 (2005)
Volume 4 (2004)
Volume 3 (2003)
Volume 2 (2002)
Most Downloaded Articles
- Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market by Case, Karl E./ Quigley, John M. and Shiller, Robert J.
- Employment by age, education, and economic growth: effects of fiscal policy composition in general equilibrium by Heylen, Freddy and Van de Kerckhove, Renaat
- The Effects of the Great Recession on Central Bank Doctrine and Practice by Bernanke, Ben S.
- Dynamics of Wealth and Consumption: New and Improved Measures for U.S. States by Zhou, Xia and Carroll, Christopher D.
Life Cycle Dynamics of Income Uncertainty and Consumption
Citation Information: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Volume 12, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, DOI: 10.1515/1935-1690.2258, May 2012
- Published Online:
We propose a method for estimating household income uncertainty that does not impose restrictions on the underlying income shocks or assumptions about household behaviors. We measure income uncertainty as the variance of linear projection errors at various future horizons, up to 25 years ahead, conditional on only the information available to households when the projection is made. Our uncertainty estimates change substantially over the life cycle. We calibrate an income process to match our estimates, allowing the variances of both transitory and persistent shocks to change over the life cycle. Relative to previous studies, we find lower and less persistent income uncertainties that call for a life cycle consumption profile with a less pronounced hump.