Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics

Editor-in-Chief: Cavalcanti, Tiago / Mertens, Karel

Ed. by Abraham, Arpad / Carceles-Poveda , Eva / Debortoli, Davide / Kambourov, Gueorgui / Lambertini, Luisa / Pavoni, Nicola / Ruhl, Kim

2 Issues per year

IMPACT FACTOR increased in 2014: 0.389
5-year IMPACT FACTOR: 0.406

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2014: 0.610
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2014: 0.518
Impact per Publication (IPP) 2014: 0.419

Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle

Daniel Louis Tortorice1

1Brandeis University,

Citation Information: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Volume 12, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, DOI: 10.1515/1935-1690.2276, January 2012

Publication History

Published Online:

I compare unemployment expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to VAR forecastable movements in unemployment. I document three key facts: First, one-half to one-third of the population expects unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession, even though the VAR predicts the fall in unemployment. Second, more people expect unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession than expect it to rise when it is rising at the beginning of a recession even though the VAR predicts these changes. Finally, the lag change in unemployment is almost as important as the VAR forecast in predicting the fraction of the population that expects unemployment to rise. Professional forecasters do not exhibit these discrepancies. Least squares learning or real time expectations do little to help explain these facts. However, delayed updating of expectations can explain some of these facts, and extrapolative expectations explains these facts best. Individuals with higher income or education are only slightly less likely to have expectations which differ from the VAR, and those whose expect more unemployment when the VAR predicts otherwise are 8-10 percent more likely to believe it is a bad time to make a major purchase.

Keywords: consumer sentiment; business cycles; rational expectations

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

Shawn Cole, Anna Paulson, and Gauri Kartini Shastry
Review of Financial Studies, 2014, Volume 27, Number 7, Page 2022
Marcel Garz
Journal of Economic Psychology, 2013, Volume 34, Page 156

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.