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Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

The Journal of University of Szczecin

2 Issues per year

Open Access

Open Access

Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions

1Ph.D. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn The Faculty of Geodesy and Land Management Department of Land Management and Regional Development Prawocheńskiego 15, 10-720 Olsztyn, Poland

2Ph.D. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics Chair of Relativistic Physics Słoneczna 54, 10-710 Olsztyn, Poland

This content is open access.

Citation Information: Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia. Volume 11, Issue 1, Pages 61–72, ISSN (Online) 1898-0198, ISSN (Print) 1730-4237, DOI: 10.2478/v10031-012-0008-7, March 2013

Publication History

Published Online:
2013-03-15

Abstract

The paper deals with the description of the issues related to the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of sharp, unexpected changes in the housing prices which have been observed in the last decade in many European countries due to some macroeconomic circumstances. When such perturbations appear, the real estate market is said to be structurally unstable, since even a small variation in the control parameters might result in a large, structural change in the state of the whole system. The essential problem addressed in the paper is the need to define and discriminate between the intervals of stable and unstable real estate market development with special attention paid to the latter. The research aims at modeling hardly explored field of discontinuous changes in the real estate market in order to reveal the bifurcation edge. Assuming that the periods of sudden price changes reflect an intrinsic property of the real estate market, it is shown that the evolution path draws for most of the time a smooth curve onto the stability area of the equilibrium surface, and only briefly penetrates into the instability area to hop to another equilibrium state.

Keywords : real estate market; catastrophe theory; system dynamics

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