Ohio’s diversity, the 2004 issue environment, and unique strategic factors give both parties good reasons to vigorously contest the state. The Buckeye state is the largest “red state” outside of the Sunbelt and one that would be especially difficult for the Republicans to replace. Gore’s unexpected strong finish in Ohio made Democrats regard the state as a prime target of opportunity. While Bush has often had a small lead among likely voters in the most sophisticated state-level polls, an infusion of new voters and the likelihood that Nader will not be on the ballot has added to Democratic prospects.