Volume 11 (2013)
Volume 10 (2012)
Volume 9 (2011)
Most Downloaded Articles
- If I Could Hold a Seminar for Political Journalists… by Fiorina, Morris P.
- If Everyone Votes Their Party, Why Do Presidential Election Outcomes Vary So Much? by Shaw, Daron
- Independent Leaners as Policy Partisans: An Examination of Party Identification and Policy Views by Magleby, David B. and Nelson, Candice
- Delegation, Control, and the Study of Public Bureaucracy by Moe, Terry M.
- The Disappearing--but Still Important--Swing Voter by Mayer, William G.
Where the Votes Are: The Electoral Geography of the Coming Democratic Majority
Citation Information: The Forum. Volume 3, Issue 4, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1540-8884, DOI: 10.2202/1540-8884.1085, January 2006
- Published Online:
This article offers an historical overview of the last three presidential elections and uses those results to categorize the states into base states and leaning states, providing a glimpse at the current status of the parties' standing in the electoral college. While it acknowledges that the Republicans have a slight edge based on recent voting trends, it argues ultimately that the Democrats have a better chance of capitalizing on a variety of electoral opportunities to attain a political majority. Thus, it joins the ongoing debate about the validity of the John Judis-Ruy Teixeira thesis about the emerging Democratic majority. It does so by offering an extended analysis of key data from the 2004 exit poll results and a reflection on historical voting results to forecast which states offer the best targets for Democrats. It considers those possibilities against the background of electoral trends over the last quarter-century to suggest what the electoral map looks like heading into the next election cycle.