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Most Downloaded Articles
- Even the Geeks are Polarized: The Dispute over the ‘Real Driver’ in American Elections by Goldstein, Ken/ Dallek, Matthew and Rivlin, Joel
- Richer Parties, Better Politics? Party-Centered Campaign Finance Laws and American Democracy by La Raja, Raymond J.
- Delegation, Control, and the Study of Public Bureaucracy by Moe, Terry M.
- If I Could Hold a Seminar for Political Journalists… by Fiorina, Morris P.
- State Resistance to "ObamaCare" by Rigby, Elizabeth
If Everyone Votes Their Party, Why Do Presidential Election Outcomes Vary So Much?
1University of Texas at Austin
Citation Information: The Forum. Volume 10, Issue 3, ISSN (Online) 1540-8884, DOI: 10.1515/1540-8884.1519, October 2012
- Published Online:
Despite mountains of election returns, opinion surveys, and controlled experiments, political scientists have not offered a particularly compelling explanation for the most important conundrum facing students of U.S. elections: how could we have had such different election results across the past decade when the electorate is so polarized along partisan lines? Relying mostly on data from the American National Election Studies, this article examines the nature of party attachments and presidential voting in the 2000s, with an eye towards estimating the relative importance of persuasion and mobilization for variation in electoral outcomes. I also consider the most obvious source for future party system transformation: the mobilization of Hispanic-American and Asian-American voting cohorts.