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Publication Date:
April 2010
ISSN:
1553-779X
DOI:
10.2202/1553-779X.2266

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Editor-in-Chief: Sidhu, Tarlochan

Ed. by Khaparde, S A / Rosolowski, Eugeniusz / Saha, Tapan K

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A New Method for Next-Day Price Forecasting for PJM Electricity Market

Phatchakorn Areekul / Tomonobu Senju / Hirofumi Toyama / Shantanu Chakraborty / Atsushi Yona / Naomitsu Urasaki / Paras Mandal / Ahmed Yousuf Saber

1University of the Ryukyus

1University of the Ryukyus

1University of the Ryukyus

1University of the Ryukyus

1University of the Ryukyus

1University of the Ryukyus

1University of Calgary

1Missouri university of science and technology

Citation Information: International Journal of Emerging Electric Power Systems. Volume 11, Issue 2, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1553-779X, DOI: 10.2202/1553-779X.2266, April 2010

Publication History:
Published Online:
2010-04-03

In the framework of the competitive electricity markets, electricity price forecasting is important for market participants in a deregulated electricity market. Rather than forecasting the value, market participants are sometimes more interested interval of the peak electricity price forecasting. Forecasting the peak price is essential for estimating the uncertainty involved in the price and thus is highly useful for making generation bidding strategies and investment decisions. The choice of the forecasting model becomes the important influence factor how to improve price forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes new approach to reduce the prediction error at occurrence time of the peak electricity price, and aims to enhance the accuracy of the next day electricity price forecasting. In the proposed method, the weekly variation data is used for input factors of the ANN at occurrence time of the peak electricity price in order to catch the price variation. Moreover, learning data for the ANN is selected by rough sets theory at occurrence time of the peak electricity price. This method is examined by using the data of the PJM electricity market. From the simulation results, it is observed that the proposed method provides a more accurate and effective forecasting, which helpful for suitable bidding strategy and risk management tool for market participants in a deregulated electricity market.

Keywords: electricity price forecasting; artificial neural network; weekly variation data; rough sets theory; PJM electricity market

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