This paper focuses on the decision evaluation of different response strategies in emergency management utilizing decision analysis with imprecise information. A method for the selection of response strategies in emergency management, as well as a model for the representation of catastrophic consequences, are proposed. In emergency management decision problems, the available estimates of probabilities, utilities, costs, and priority weights are often subject to large degrees of uncertainty and imprecision. When uncertainty prevails in the input data and large societal values are at stake, coping with this lack of precision becomes very important in decision making processes. The method employs representation of imprecision in probabilities, utilities, and weights on attributes in the form of interval statements and comparisons together with a formal, comprehensive, and comprehensible description of a catastrophic consequence facilitating the use of preferential statements between catastrophic consequences. The method proposed can be viewed as a more frugal decision analysis method, decreasing the efforts needed in elicitation of input statements which often is a cumbersome threshold for the use of decision analysis techniques. It is suggested as a complement to cost/benefit approaches and other approaches relying on inaccessible probabilistic data either when probability assessments regarding catastrophic events are too uncertain or when pure monetary scales are deemed inadequate.

Editor-in-Chief: Renda-Tanali, Irmak, D.Sc.
Managing Editor: McGee, Sibel, Ph.D.
2 Issues per year
Increased IMPACT FACTOR 2011: 0.547
5-year IMPACT FACTOR: 0.568
Issues
Volume 10 (2013)
Volume 9 (2012)
Volume 7 (2010)
Volume 6 (2009)
Volume 5 (2008)
Volume 4 (2007)
Volume 3 (2006)
Volume 2 (2005)
Volume 1 (2004)
Most Downloaded Articles
- Review of Building an Enterprise-Wide Business Continuity Program by Franklin, Charlotte
- Vulnerability of U.S. Cities to Environmental Hazards by Borden, Kevin A./ Schmidtlein, Mathew C./ Emrich, Christopher T./ Piegorsch, Walter W. and Cutter, Susan L.
- An Operational Framework for Resilience by Kahan, Jerome H./ Allen, Andrew C. and George, Justin K.
- The Evolving Role of the Public Information Officer: An Examination of Social Media in Emergency Management by Hughes, Amanda L. and Palen, Leysia
- Disaster Resilience Indicators for Benchmarking Baseline Conditions by Cutter, Susan L./ Burton, Christopher G. and Emrich, Christopher T.
Decision Evaluation of Response Strategies in Emergency Management Using Imprecise Assessments
Aron Larsson / Love Ekenberg / Mats Danielson
1Mid Sweden University
1Stockholm University
1Stockholm University
Citation Information: Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. Volume 7, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1547-7355, DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1646, September 2010
Publication History:
- Published Online:
- 2010-09-01
Keywords: emergency management; decision analysis; imprecision; uncertainty


















Comments (0)