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Publication Date:
December 2010
ISSN:
1547-7355
DOI:
10.2202/1547-7355.1769

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Editor-in-Chief: Renda-Tanali, Irmak, D.Sc.

Managing Editor: McGee, Sibel, Ph.D.

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Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model

Peter B Dixon / Bumsoo Lee / Todd Muehlenbeck / Maureen T. Rimmer / Adam Rose / George Verikios

1Monash University

1University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

1University of Southern California

1Monash University

1University of Southern California

1Monash University

Citation Information: Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. Volume 7, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1547-7355, DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1769, December 2010

Publication History:
Published Online:
2010-12-26

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Keywords: influenza epidemic; quarterly CGE model

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