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Journal of Perinatal Medicine

Official Journal of the World Association of Perinatal Medicine

Editor-in-Chief: Dudenhausen, Joachim W.

Editorial Board Member: / Bancalari, Eduardo / Greenough, Anne / Genc, Mehmet R. / Chervenak, Frank A. / Chappelle, Joseph / Bergmann, Renate L. / Bernardes, J.F. / Bevilacqua, G. / Blickstein, Isaac / Cabero Roura, Luis / Carbonell-Estrany, Xavier / Carrera, Jose M. / D`Addario, Vincenzo / D'Alton, MD, Mary E. / Dimitrou, G. / Grunebaum, Amos / Hentschel, Roland / Köpcke, W. / Kawabata, Ichiro / Keirse, M.J.M.C. / Kurjak M.D., Asim / Levene, Malcolm / Lockwood, Charles J. / Marsal, Karel / Makatsariya, Alexander / Nishida, Hiroshi / Papp, Zoltán / Pejaver, Ranjan Kumar / Pooh, Ritsuko K. / Romero, Roberto / Saugstad, Ola D. / Schenker, Joseph G. / Sen, Cihat / Seri, Istvan / Vetter, Klaus / Winn, Hung N. / Young, Bruce K. / Zimmermann, Roland

6 Issues per year

IMPACT FACTOR 2013: 1.425

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Validation of a model to predict hospitalization due to RSV of infants born at 33–35 weeks' gestation

Xavier Carbonell-Estrany1 / Eric A.F. Simões2 / John R. Fullarton3 / Cyril Ferdynus4 / Jean-Bernard Gouyon5 / The European RSV Risk Factor Study Group6

1Neonatology Service, Hospital Clínic, Institut Clínic de Ginecologia Obstetricia i Neonatologia, Barcelona, Spain

2Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, The University of Colorado School of Medicine and The Children's Hospital, Denver, Colorado, USA

3Strategen Limited, Basingstoke, UK

4Service de Biostatistique et Informatique Médicale, Cellule d'Evaluation des Réseaux de Soins, CHU du Bocage, 21079 Dijon, Cedex/France

5Department of Pediatrics, CHU, Dijon, France

6European Working Group: Xavier Carbonell-Estrany (co-Chair), Neonatology Service, Hospital Clínic, Institut Clínic de Ginecologia Obstetricia i Neonatologia, Neonatology Service, Barcelona, Spain; Eric A.F. Simões (co-Chair), Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, The University of Colorado School of Medicine and The Children's Hospital, Denver, Colorado, USA; Ignazio Barberi, Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Department of Pediatrics, University of Messina, Italy; Angelika Berger, Department of Neonatology and Pediatric Intensive Care, University Children's Hospital, Vienna, Austria; Louis Bont, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Jean Bottu, Department of Neonatology of Luxembourg, Luxembourg; Karina Butler, Our Lady's Hospital for Sick Children, Dublin, Ireland; Veerle Cossey, Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital Gasthuisberg, Leuven, Belgium; Gunther Doring, Children's Hospital, Technical University, Munich, Germany; Jean-Bernard Gouyon, Department of Pediatrics, CHU, Dijon, France; Bernard Guillois, Laboratory of Human and Molecular Virology, Caen, France; E. Farri-Kostopoulou, St. Andrew Hospital, Patras, Greece; Marcello Lanari, Pediatrics and Neonatology Unit, Hospital of Imola, Italy; Patrice Morville, Pediatric Cardiology, American Memorial Hospital, Reims, France; Bernhard Resch, Division of Neonatology, Department of Pediatrics, University Hospital Graz, Austria; Kate Sauer, Pediatrics, University Hospital, Leuven, Belgium; Richard Thwaites, Pediatric Department, St. Mary's Hospital, Portsmouth, UK

Corresponding author: Jean-Bernard Gouyon Neonatal and Pediatric Intensive Care Unit University of Dijon 21079 Dijon Cedex/France

Citation Information: Journal of Perinatal Medicine. Volume 38, Issue 4, Pages 411–417, ISSN (Online) 1619-3997, ISSN (Print) 0300-5577, DOI: 10.1515/jpm.2010.074, March 2010

Publication History

Received:
2009-12-11
Revised:
2010-01-20
Accepted:
2010-01-20
Published Online:
2010-03-18

Abstract

Background: A model to predict hospitalization due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) of infants born at 33– 35 weeks' gestation was developed using seven risk factors from the Spanish FLIP study “birth ±10 weeks from the beginning of the RSV season”, “birth weight”, “breast fed ≤2 months”, “number of siblings ≥2 years”, “number of family members with atopy”, “number of family members with wheezing”, and “gender”. The aim of this study was to validate the model using French data.

Methods: The FLIP model [predictive accuracy 71%, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) 0.791] was tested against the French data (77 hospitalized infants with RSV born at 33–35 weeks and 154 age-matched controls) using discriminatory function analysis by applying the FLIP coefficients to the French data and by generating the seven variable model from the French data.

Results: Applying the FLIP coefficients to the French dataset, the model correctly classified 69% of cases (ROC 0.627). The predictive power increased to 73% (ROC 0.654) when “number of siblings ≥2 years” was substituted for “number of children at school”. The number needed to treat (NNT) in order to prevent 70% of hospitalizations was 18. The model derived using French data could correctly classify 62% of cases in the French data (ROC 0.658).

Conclusions: The model was successfully validated and may potentially optimize immunoprophylaxis in French infants born at 33–35 week's gestation.

Keywords: Hospitalization; immunoprophylaxis; predictive model validation; premature infants; respiratory syncytial virus; risk factors

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