Pythagorean win share has been one of the fundamental contributions to Sabermetrics. Several hundred articles, both academic and non-academic, have explored variations on Bill James' original formula and its fit to empirical data. This paper considers a variation that is previously unexplored on any systematic level, consistency. After discussing several important contributions to the line of literature, we demonstrate the strong correlation between Pythagorean residuals and several notions of run distribution consistency. Finally, we select the "correct" form of consistency and use it to construct a simple regression estimator, which improves RMSE by 11%.
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Consistency and Pythagoras
Alexander Braunstein
1University of Pennsylvania
Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 6, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1215, January 2010
Publication History:
- Published Online:
- 2010-01-28
Keywords: Pythagorean method; baseball; consistency
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