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Most Downloaded Articles
- Study of the Technical and Tactical Variables Determining Set Win or Loss in Top-Level European Men's Volleyball by Rodriguez-Ruiz, David/ Quiroga, Miriam E./ Miralles, Jose A./ Sarmiento, Samuel/ de Saá, Yves and García-Manso, Juan M.
- A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics by Kubatko, Justin/ Oliver, Dean/ Pelton, Kevin and Rosenbaum, Dan T
- Does Effectiveness of Skill in Complex I Predict Win in Men's Olympic Volleyball Games? by Zetou, Eleni/ Moustakidis, Athanasios/ Tsigilis, Nikolaos and Komninakidou, Andromahi
- Models for Third Down Conversion in the National Football League by Cafarelli, Ryan/ Rigdon, Christopher J. and Rigdon, Steven E.
- Testing the On-Court Efficacy of the NBA's Age Eligibility Rule by Rodenberg, Ryan and Kim, Jun Woo
Models for Third Down Conversion in the National Football League
1Southern Illinois University Edwardsville
2Southern Illinois UniversityEdwardsville
3Saint Louis University
Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 8, Issue 3, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1383, October 2012
- Published Online:
Several models are proposed for the probability of converting a third down attempt in the National Football League. The probability, which can depend on the number of yards to go, the strength of the offense, and the strength of the defense, leads to a logistic regression. We approach the problem through a hierarchical Bayes model and estimate parameters by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This MCMC estimation in the context of a hierarchical Bayes model may be relevant in other sports situations where a probability depends on the difference of strengths of the two teams. We find that the statistic "third-down conversion rate" to be a nearly meaningless measure of the efficiency of an offense. Even when this is adjusted for yards to go for a first down, there is little evidence that teams differ in their ability to achieve a first down on a third down conversion.