Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation

Glickman, PhD, Mark

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

4 Issues per year


SCImago Journal Rank (SJR): 0.257
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP): 0.379

VolumeIssuePage

A Comparison of the Autocorrelation and Variance of NFL Team Strengths Over Time using a Bayesian State-Space Model

Joseph S. Koopmeiners1

1University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 8, Issue 3, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1422, October 2012

Publication History

Published Online:
2012-10-09

Abstract

Professional sports leagues are motivated to promote competitive balance in order to maintain fan interest. The National Football League (NFL) has taken several steps to promote competitive balance, most notably free agency and the salary cap, which were instituted prior to the 1994 season. Previous research into competitive balance in sports focused on the variability of team strengths but ignored the year-to-year autocorrelation in team strengths. We present a Bayesian state-space model for paired comparisons that allows regression on the variance parameters. By modeling the variance parameters in a regression framework, we are able to simultaneously compare the variance and autocorrelation in team strengths over time. The autocorrelation of NFL team strengths has decreased over time while there has been little change in the variance in teams strengths since the 1970s.

Keywords: NFL; state-space modeling; competitive balance

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content. Please, subscribe or login to access all content.