Abstract

We consider the problem of projecting future success of Minor League baseball players at each level of the farm system. Using tree based methods, in particular random forests, we consider which statistics are most correlated with Major League success, how Major League teams use these statistics differently in handling prospects, and how prior belief in a players ability, measured through draft position, is used throughout a players Minor League career. We show that roughly the 18th round prospect corresponds to being draft neutral for a team, whereas teams essentially make decisions based strictly on performance. We use for our data all position players drafted between 1999 and 2002.