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Most Downloaded Articles
- Building an NCAA men’s basketball predictive model and quantifying its success by Lopez, Michael J. and Matthews, Gregory J.
- Creating space to shoot: quantifying spatial relative field goal efficiency in basketball by Shortridge, Ashton/ Goldsberry, Kirk and Adams, Matthew
- Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football League by Mulholland, Jason and Jensen, Shane T.
- A generative model for predicting outcomes in college basketball by Ruiz, Francisco J. R. and Perez-Cruz, Fernando
- A new approach to bracket prediction in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament based on a dual-proportion likelihood by Gupta, Ajay Andrew
An Exploratory Study of Minor League Baseball Statistics
2Pomona College '13
Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 8, Issue 4, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1445, November 2012
- Published Online:
We consider the problem of projecting future success of Minor League baseball players at each level of the farm system. Using tree based methods, in particular random forests, we consider which statistics are most correlated with Major League success, how Major League teams use these statistics differently in handling prospects, and how prior belief in a players ability, measured through draft position, is used throughout a players Minor League career. We show that roughly the 18th round prospect corresponds to being draft neutral for a team, whereas teams essentially make decisions based strictly on performance. We use for our data all position players drafted between 1999 and 2002.