Among analysts, technical trading rules are widely used for forecasting security returns. Recent literature provides evidence that these rules may provide positive profits after accounting for transaction costs. This would be contrary to the theory of the efficient market hypothesis which states that security prices cannot be forecasted from their past values or other past variables. This paper uses the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 1963 to 1988 to examine the linear and nonlinear predictability of stock market returns with simple technical trading rules, by using the nearest neighbors and the feedforward network regressions. Evidence of nonlinear predictability is found in the stock market returns by using the past returns and the buy and sell signals of the moving average rules.

Ed. by Mizrach, Bruce
5 Issues per year
IMPACT FACTOR 2011: 0.405
5-year IMPACT FACTOR: 0.739
Issues
Volume 17 (2013)
Volume 16 (2012)
Volume 15 (2011)
Volume 14 (2010)
Volume 13 (2009)
Volume 12 (2008)
Volume 11 (2007)
Volume 10 (2006)
Volume 9 (2005)
Volume 8 (2004)
Volume 7 (2003)
Volume 6 (2003)
Volume 5 (2002)
Volume 4 (2001)
Volume 3 (1999)
Volume 2 (1998)
Volume 1 (1997)
Most Downloaded Articles
- The Fiscal Cost of Financial Instability by Chiarella, Carl and Di Guilmi, Corrado
- Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations by Lines, Marji and Westerhoff, Frank
- A New Forecasting Model for USD/CNY Exchange Rate by Cai, Zongwu/ Chen, Linna and Fang, Ying
- A Nonlinear Filtering Algorithm based on Wavelet Transforms for High-Frequency Financial Data Analysis by Meinl, Thomas and Sun, Edward W.
- Forecasting Stock Market Volatility with Regime-Switching GARCH Models by Marcucci, Juri
Technical Trading Rules and the Size of the Risk Premium in Security Returns
Ramazan Gencay / Thanasis Stengos
1Department of Economics University of Windsor, gencay@uwindsor.ca
1Department of Economics University of Guelph
Citation Information: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. Volume 2, Issue 2, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1558-3708, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1026, July 1997
Publication History:
- Published Online:
- 1997-07-01
Keywords: market efficiency; technical trading rules; feedforward networks


















Comments (0)