This article reports a new seasonality in the volatility of Eurofutures contracts as a function of the time left before contract expiry. The fact that futures markets, unlike foreign exchange or equity markets, offer contracts that expire on specific dates, with typically one expiry per quarter for Eurofutures, leads to a new type of volatility seasonality as a function of the time left to expiry for the contract in question. The intraday volatility, averaged over the Eurofutures contracts we studied (Eurodollar, Euromark, and Short Sterling), decreases as a function of the time left to expiry. There is also an unexpected behavior consisting of oscillatory movements in volatility, with peaks every 60 business days, corresponding to rollover activities before each quarterly expiry.

Ed. by Mizrach, Bruce
5 Issues per year
IMPACT FACTOR 2011: 0.405
5-year IMPACT FACTOR: 0.739
Issues
Volume 17 (2013)
Volume 16 (2012)
Volume 15 (2011)
Volume 14 (2010)
Volume 13 (2009)
Volume 12 (2008)
Volume 11 (2007)
Volume 10 (2006)
Volume 9 (2005)
Volume 8 (2004)
Volume 7 (2003)
Volume 6 (2003)
Volume 5 (2002)
Volume 4 (2001)
Volume 3 (1999)
Volume 2 (1998)
Volume 1 (1997)
Most Downloaded Articles
- The Fiscal Cost of Financial Instability by Chiarella, Carl and Di Guilmi, Corrado
- Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations by Lines, Marji and Westerhoff, Frank
- A New Forecasting Model for USD/CNY Exchange Rate by Cai, Zongwu/ Chen, Linna and Fang, Ying
- A Nonlinear Filtering Algorithm based on Wavelet Transforms for High-Frequency Financial Data Analysis by Meinl, Thomas and Sun, Edward W.
- Forecasting Stock Market Volatility with Regime-Switching GARCH Models by Marcucci, Juri
Time-to-Expiry Seasonalities in Eurofutures
1Olsen & Associates, Zurich, Switzerland
2Olsen & Associates, Zurich, Switzerland
3University of Windsor
4Olsen & Associates, Zurich, Switzerland
Citation Information: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. Volume 4, Issue 4, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1558-3708, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1066, January 2001
Publication History:
- Published Online:
- 2001-01-01
Keywords: Eurofutures; intraday seasonality; intraday volatility; time-to-expiry seasonality


















Comments (0)