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Publication Date:
December 2003
ISSN:
1558-3708
DOI:
10.2202/1558-3708.1125

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Supplementary Article Materials

Ed. by Mizrach, Bruce

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Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists

Frank H. Westerhoff1 / Stefan Reitz2

1University of Osnabrueck, frank.westerhoff@uos.de

2University of Giessen, stefan.reitz@wirtschaft.uni-giessen.de

Citation Information: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. Volume 7, Issue 4, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1558-3708, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1125, December 2003

Publication History:
Published Online:
2003-12-17

We develop a behavioral exchange rate model with chartists and fundamentalists to study cyclical behavior in foreign exchange markets. Within our model, the market impact of fundamentalists depends on the strength of their belief in fundamental analysis. Estimation of a STAR GARCH model shows that the more the exchange rate deviates from its fundamental value, the more fundamentalists leave the market. In contrast to previous findings, our paper indicates that due to the nonlinear presence of fundamentalists, market stability decreases with increasing misalignments. A stabilization policy such as central bank interventions may help to deflate bubbles.

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