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Publication Date:
December 2004
ISSN:
1558-3708
DOI:
10.2202/1558-3708.1189

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An Integer-Valued Time Series Model for Hotels that Accounts for Constrained Capacity

Kurt Brannas1 / Jonas Nordstrom2

1Umea University, kurt.brannas@econ.umu.se

2Umea University, Jonas.Nordstrom@econ.umu.se

Citation Information: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. Volume 8, Issue 4, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1558-3708, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1189, December 2004

Publication History:
Published Online:
2004-12-01

Many service industry firms strive hard to fill free capacity in order to cover their costs for a fixed capital stock. This paper presents a time series model where the capacity constraint is an integral part. The integer-valued autoregressive model builds on a simple idea of how daily time series arise for hotels and other similar establishments. Measures that follow naturally from the time series model are the occupancy probability and the duration of stay for the visitor. Empirically, we study the effects of price changes and a large festival, on these measures.

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