The stochastic properties of volatility in spot electricity prices are only partially understood and present substantial modelling challenges. This paper develops and applies three complementary modelling approaches in order to uncover its fundamental and behavioural drivers over time and across intra-day trading periods. First, intra-day prices are related to systematic components, including economic fundamentals, strategic and market design effects. Then, residual volatility is attributed to: i) regular, non-linear agent reactions to market fundamentals (covariates of heteroscedasticity), ii) the adaptation of price formation due to substantial agent learning (time-varying effects), and iii) the transient extreme pricing in periods of scarcity (regime-switching dynamics). We find that, i) GARCH effects diminish, when each of the above sources of volatility is accounted for, and ii) allowing for the time-varying responses of prices to fundamentals can yield more precise volatility estimates than an explicit GARCH specification.

Ed. by Mizrach, Bruce
5 Issues per year
IMPACT FACTOR 2011: 0.405
5-year IMPACT FACTOR: 0.739
Issues
Volume 17 (2013)
Volume 16 (2012)
Volume 15 (2011)
Volume 14 (2010)
Volume 13 (2009)
Volume 12 (2008)
Volume 11 (2007)
Volume 10 (2006)
Volume 9 (2005)
Volume 8 (2004)
Volume 7 (2003)
Volume 6 (2003)
Volume 5 (2002)
Volume 4 (2001)
Volume 3 (1999)
Volume 2 (1998)
Volume 1 (1997)
Most Downloaded Articles
- The Fiscal Cost of Financial Instability by Chiarella, Carl and Di Guilmi, Corrado
- Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations by Lines, Marji and Westerhoff, Frank
- A New Forecasting Model for USD/CNY Exchange Rate by Cai, Zongwu/ Chen, Linna and Fang, Ying
- A Nonlinear Filtering Algorithm based on Wavelet Transforms for High-Frequency Financial Data Analysis by Meinl, Thomas and Sun, Edward W.
- Forecasting Stock Market Volatility with Regime-Switching GARCH Models by Marcucci, Juri
Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility
1Regulatory Authority for Energy - Greece, nkarakatsani@rae.gr
2London Business School, dbunn@london.edu
Citation Information: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. Volume 14, Issue 4, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1558-3708, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1657, September 2010
Publication History:
- Published Online:
- 2010-09-13


















Comments (0)