Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

World Political Science

Ed. by Cardinal, Linda


CiteScore 2018: 0.35

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.207
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 0.349

Online
ISSN
2363-4782
See all formats and pricing
More options …

The Halo Effect: Perceptions of Diffuse Threat and SVP Vote Share

Noemi Martig / Julian Bernauer
  • Corresponding author
  • University of Mannheim, Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES), Mannheim, Germany
  • Email
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
Published Online: 2018-05-04 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/wps-2018-0002

Abstract

The voter strength of right-wing populist parties is regularly attributed either to a feeling of threat from a high proportion of local foreigners or to the lack of opportunities for contact between the majority and the minority. This contribution is theoretically based on a synthesis of these perspectives, known as the Halo effect. Accordingly, it is not so much the local size of the local population, which is perceived as foreign, but rather its relative proportion in the surrounding countryside, which leads to a diffuse feeling of threat. The electoral success of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) at the level of the Swiss municipalities serves as a basis for the empirical investigation, which is conducted alternatively with the proportions of the foreign and Muslim population. For both groups, spatial multilevel regression models provide indications of a coexistence of direct negative effects of minority populations on the share of the SVP (in the sense of the contact hypothesis) and of Halo effects, with the direct effects appearing to be somewhat more pronounced. Socio-structural factors can reduce these correlations (high unemployment neutralises the negative effect of the proportion of foreigners) or intensify these correlations (a higher income level accentuates the Halo effect for Muslims).

Keywords: Halo effect; populist radical right parties; spatial regression; Switzerland; voting

References

  • Allen, C. and J. Nielsen (2002) Summary Report on Islamophobia in the EU after 11 September 2001. Vienna: EUMC. Online: http://fra.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fra_uploads/199-Synthesis-report_en.pdf [last accesssed 19 October 2015].

  • Allport, G. (1954) The Nature of Prejudice. Reading: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar

  • Arzheimer, K. (2009) “Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002,” American Journal of Political Science, 53(2):259–275.CrossrefWeb of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Arzheimer, K. and E. Carter (2006) “Political Opportunity Structures and Right-Wing Extremist Party Success,” European Journal of Political Research, 45(3):419–443.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Bivand, R., E. Pebesma and V. Gómez-Rubio (2008) Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R. New York: Springer.Google Scholar

  • Blalock, H. (1957) “Per Cent Non-White and Discrimination in the South,” American Sociological Review, 22(6):677–682.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Blalock, H. (1967) Toward a Theory of Minority-Group Relations. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar

  • Bleich, E. (2009) “Where do Muslims Stand on Ethno-Racial Hierarchies in Britain and France? Evidence from Public Opinion Surveys, 1988–2008,” Patterns of Prejudice, 43(3–4):379–400.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Bonanomi Feuz, A. (2012) “Die Stabilisierungspolitik des Bandes 2008–2010: Warum die Schweiz die Krise rasch bewaltigt hat,” Die Volkswirtschaft, 85(3):3–6. Online: http://www.dievolkswirtschaft.ch/de/editions/201205/pdf/Feuz.pdf [accessed 18 February 2015].

  • Bowyer, B. (2008) “Local Context and Extreme Right Support in England: The British National Party in the 2002 and 2003 Local Elections,” Electoral Studies, 27(4):611–620.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Brewer, M. and N. Miller (1984) (Hrsg.). Groups in Contact: The Psychology of Desegregation. Orlando: Academic Press.Google Scholar

  • Campbell, A., P. Converse, W. Miller and D. Stokes (1960) The American Voter. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar

  • Coffé, H., B. Heyndels and J. Vermeir (2007) “Fertile Groands for Extreme Right-Wing Parties: Explaining the Vlaams Blok’s Electoral Success,” Electoral Studies, 26(1):142–155.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Dülmer, H. and M. Klein (2005) “Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Germany in a Multilevel Perspective: A Rejoinder to Lubbers and Scheepers,” European Journal of Political Research, 44(2):243–263.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Freitag, M., A. Vatter and S. Mueller (2015) “Switzerland’s Immigration Challenge. Viewpoints and Insights in the Aftermath of the Mass Immigration Initiative,” Swiss Political Science Review, 21(1):1–4.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Giger, N., J. Rosset and J. Bernauer (2012) “The Poor Political Representation of the Poor in a Comparative Perspective,” Representation, 48(1):47–61.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Golder, M. (2003) “Explaining Variation in the Success of Extreme Right Parties in Western Europe,” Comparative Political Studies, 36(4):432–466.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Hewstone, M. and R. Brown (1986) Contact and Conflict in Intergroup Encounters. Cambridge: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar

  • Jackman, S. (2009) Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences. Chichester: Wiley.Google Scholar

  • Jackman, R. and K. Volpert (1996) “Conditions Favouring Parties of the Extreme Right in Western Europe,” British Journal of Political Science, 26(4):501–521.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Kestilä, E. and P. Söderlund (2007) “Subnational Political Opportunity Structures and the Success of the Radical Right: Evidence from the March 2004 Regional Elections in France,” European Journal of Political Research, 46(6):773–796.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Kitschelt, H. (1997) The Radical Right in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis. Michigan: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar

  • Knigge, P. (1998) “The Ecological Correlates of Right-Wing Extremism in Western Europe,” European Journal of Political Research, 34(2):249–279.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Kriesi, H. (2005) (Ed.). Der Aufstieg der SVP: Acht Kantone im Vergleich. Zürich: Verlag Neue Zürcher Zeitung.Google Scholar

  • Lazarsfeld, P. F., B. Berelson and H. Gaudet (1944) The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes Up his Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Duell, Sloan and Pearce.Google Scholar

  • Lipset, S. (1981) Political Man (Expanded Edition). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar

  • Lubbers, M. and P. Scheepers (2001) “Explaining the Trend in Extreme Right-Wing Voting: Germany 1989–1998,” European Sociological Review, 17(4):431–449.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Manatschal, A. and C. Rapp (2015) “Welche Schweizer wählen die SVP und warum?” In: (M. Freitag and A. Vatter, eds.) Wahlen and Wählerschaft in der Schweiz. Zürich: Verlag Neue Zürcher Zeitung, pp. 187–215.Google Scholar

  • Mayer, N. (2002) Ces français qui votent Le Pen. Paris: Flammarion.Google Scholar

  • Norris, P. (2005) Radical Right: Voters and Parties in the Electoral Market. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar

  • Pettigrew, T., L. Tropp, U. Wagner and O. Christ (2011) “Recent Advances in Intergroup Contact Theory,” International Journal of Intercultural Relations, 35(3):271–280.CrossrefWeb of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Quillian, L. (1995) “Prejudice as a Response to Perceived Group Threat: Population Composition and Anti-Immigrant and Racial Prejudice in Europe,” American Sociological Review, 60(4):586–611.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Rattinger, H. (1981) “Unemployment and the 1976 Election in Germany: Some Findings at the Aggregate and the Individual Level of Analysis.” In: (D. Hibbs and H. Fassbender, eds.) Contemporary Political Economy. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, pp. 121–135.Google Scholar

  • Rydgren, J. and P. Ruth (2011) “Voting for the Radical Right in Swedish Municipalities: Social Marginality and Ethnic Competition?” Scandinavian Political Studies, 34(3):202–225.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Rydgren, J. and P. Ruth (2013) “Contextual Explanations of Radical Right-Wing Support in Sweden: Socioeconomic Marginalization, Group Threat, and the Halo Effect,” Ethnic and Racial Studies, 36(4):711–728.CrossrefWeb of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Schneider, S. (2008) “Anti-Immigrant Attitudes in Europe: Outgroup Size and Perceived Ethnic Threat,” European Sociological Review, 24(1):53–67.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Spruyt, B. and M. Elchardus (2012) “Are Anti-Muslim Feelings More Widespread than Anti-Foreigner Feelings? Evidence from two Split-Sample Experiments,” Ethnicities, 12(6):800–820.CrossrefWeb of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Teney, C. (2012) “Space Matters. The Group Threat Hypothesis Revisited with Geographically Weighted Regression. The Case of the NPD 2009 Electoral Success,” Zeitschrift für Soziologie, 41(3):207–226.Google Scholar

  • Valdez, S. (2014) “Visibility and Votes: A Spatial Analysis of Anti-Immigrant Voting in Sweden,” Migration Studies, 2(2):162–188.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Van der Waal, J., W. de Koster and P. Achterberg (2013) “Ethnic Segregation and Radical Right-Wing Voting in Dutch Cities,” Urban Affairs Review, 49(5):748–777.CrossrefWeb of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Vatter, A. (2011) (ed.). Vom Schächt- zum Minarettverbot: Religiöse Minderheiten in der direkten Demokratie. Zürich: Verlag Neue Zürcher Zeitung.Google Scholar

  • Williams, R. (1964) Strangers Next Door. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar

About the article

Published Online: 2018-05-04

Published in Print: 2018-04-25


Citation Information: World Political Science, Volume 14, Issue 1, Pages 27–54, ISSN (Online) 2363-4782, ISSN (Print) 2363-4774, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/wps-2018-0002.

Export Citation

©2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston.Get Permission

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in