Predictive football modelling has become progressively popular over the last two decades. Due to this, numerous studies have proposed different types of statistical models to predict the outcome of a football match. This study provides a review of three different models published in the academic literature and then implements these on recent match data from the top football leagues in Europe. These models are then compared utilising the rank probability score to assess their predictive capability. Additionally, a modification is proposed which includes the travel distance of the away team. When tested on football leagues from both Australia and Russia, it is shown to improve predictive capability according to the rank probability score.
We propose a Markovian model to calculate the winning probability of a set in a volleyball match. Traditional models take into account that the scoring probability in a rally (SP) depends on whether the team starts the rally serving or receiving. The proposed model takes into account that the different rotations of a team have different SPs. The model also takes into consideration that the SP of a given rotation complex 1 (K1) depends on the players directly involved in that complex. Our results help to design general game strategies and, potentially, more efficient training routines. In particular, we used the model to study several game properties, such as the importance of having serve receivers with homogeneous performance, the effect of the players’ initial positions on score evolution, etc. Finally, the proposed model is used to diagnose the performance of the female Colombian U23 team (U23 CT).
We examine correlates of tenure length for professional soccer managers. Using 521 managers from Major League Soccer (MLS), Spain’s La Liga, and the English Premier League (EPL) whose tenures occurred between 2000 and 2015, we assess the association between both performance-related and non-performance variables, and manager duration. Performance variables include measures of a team’s ranking (or position) and relegation/promotion indicators. Non-performance variables include manager nationality and age, the timing of a manager’s hire, and the team’s wage bill. We employ survival analytic methods, including Cox’s proportional hazards model, to explore the effects of fixed and time-dependent covariates on coach tenure length. We find that La Liga managers have shorter survival, as do managers who were older when they were hired. Furthermore, finishing with a better ranking and, more importantly, improving on previous team performance yields longer survival. Most strikingly, however, we find a significant disparity in the comparison of domestic and foreign managers within a league. While the difference in longevity between domestic and foreign managers in La Liga and the EPL was minimal, American managers in MLS survived significantly longer than their foreign peers.
Each year, the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament attracts popular attention, including bracket challenges where fans seek to pick the winners of the tournament’s games. However, the quantity and unpredictable nature of games suggest a single bracket will likely select some winning teams incorrectly even if created with insightful and sophisticated methods. Hence, rather than focusing on creating a single bracket to perform well, a challenge participant may wish to create a pool of brackets that likely contains at least one high-scoring bracket. This paper proposes a power model to estimate tournament outcome probabilities based on past tournament data. Bracket pools are generated for the 2013–2019 tournaments using six generators, five using the power model and one using the Bradley-Terry model. The generated brackets are assessed by the ESPN scoring system and compared to those produced by a traditional pick favorite approach as well as the highest scoring brackets in the ESPN Tournament Challenge for each year.
Individual tennis points evolve over time and space, as each of the two opposing players are constantly reacting and positioning themselves in response to strikes of the ball. However, these reactions are diminished into simple tally statistics such as the amount of winners or unforced errors a player has. In this paper, a new way is proposed to evaluate how an individual tennis point is evolving, by measuring how many points a player can expect from each shot, given who struck the shot and where both players are located. This measurement, named “Expected Shot Value” (ESV), derives from stochastically modeling each shot of individual tennis points. The modeling will take place on multiple resolutions, differentiating between the continuous player movement and discrete events such as strikes occurring and duration of shots ending. Multi-resolution stochastic modeling allows for the incorporation of information-rich spatiotemporal player-tracking data, while allowing for computational tractability on large amounts of data. In addition to estimating ESV, this methodology will be able to identify the strengths and weaknesses of specific players, which will have the ability to guide a player’s in-match strategy.
European Research Council Executive Agency, (ERCEA), has the mission to encourage the highest quality research in Europe through competitive funding and to support investigator-driven frontier research across all field, on the basis of scientific excellence. In 2019, European Research Council (ERC) updates the Panel Structure in 3 areas: Social Sciences and Humanities SH, Physical Sciences and Engineering PE, Life Sciences LS, 25 panels and 333 sub-panels. Every UE countries are updating own academic body system to align to the ERC. In Italy, this alignment is not possible because Movement and sport science has been together place SH and LS as academic disciplines of Physical training and Sport sciences. This is the vexata quaestio that makes the Italian academic system different from the other EU countries with consequences on the development of Italian research in Europa. Historical review explains why this division exists and why it begun after the second great war and developed to nowadays, determining an atypical model than others European countries. Movement and sport science should to be reasonably placed in an unique scientific area or alignments coherently at the related subpanels according to the scientific evidences, even if they are placed in more ERC areas. Both options can be applied according to ERC thought to resolve the actual problem.
The aim of the study was to evaluate the correlation between temperament and stress, to assess the stress level and perform comparative analysis of feeling of stress before and after the race. The test group consisted of 30 competitors from Mazovian cycling clubs between the ages of 15 and 16 (M = 15.5, SD = 0.50). Standard psychological questionnaires were used for the study. The level of stress was tested using the PSS 10 questionnaire by S. Cohen, T. Kamarck and R. Mermelstein. In addition, temperament was studied with Formal Characteristics of Behaviour – Temperament Inventory by Zawadzki and Strelau (1997). Measures were used to determine the constant predisposition of cyclists to feel the level of stress, as well as to show the intensity of stress during sports competitions (before and after the start). Statistical analyses carried out with the Wilcoxon test showed a significant difference between the initial and final value of the stress level as a condition in the subjects. It was found that in the same people, stress reached a higher average level after the race (M = 17.8, SD = 6) than before the performance (M = 11.83, SD = 5.9). The results show that the state of stress does not decrease after the start, as occurs with other variables (including emotional arousal). The results showed that stress measured before and after the start of a competition positively correlates with perseverance and emotional reactivity, while stress before the start negatively correlates with briskness. Observations from the analyses carried out may broaden the understanding of the phenomenon of stress, especially in aspects of sport competition and track cyclists.
The aim of this study is to examine whether sport involvement i.e. identification with the domain of sports affect satisfaction with body image in men and women. 158 respondents from a tertiary educational institution provided data on their satisfaction with their body image, level of sport involvement, and level of physical activity. Independent t-tests were conducted to compare differences between and within genders. Female respondents (n=40) who were high in sport involvement reported a significantly lower level of dissatisfaction with their body image (M=.55, SD=.78) when compared to female respondents (n=44) who were low in sport involvement (M=.84, SD=.83; t=1.65, p<.05). There was no significant difference amongst male respondents. There was also no significant difference in satisfaction with body image across groups with varying levels of physical activity. This suggests that being involved in sport can affect body image satisfaction amongst females.
Particulate matter, one of the most recent social problems in Korea, not only poses a threat to people’s health, but is also emerging as a constraint to discourage outdoor leisure activities. Golf, a leisure sport played outdoors for hours, is not free from such a threat, and now is time to analyze golfers’ recognition of particulate matter. To examine whether particulate matter, among other constraints for golfers, had a significant effect as well as how golfers recognized particulate matter, we used 324 collected questionnaires in this study. After exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis through SPSS 23.0, we divided questionnaire participants into recognition and non-recognition groups based on whether they checked and recognized atmospheric conditions, including particulate matter, before playing golf, and used multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) to compare and analyze leisure constraints. Respondents in the recognition group who recognized particulate matter in advance experienced participation constraints in weather and health factors, while those in the non-recognition group experienced participation constraints in skill and confidence factors. In other words, respondents participated in outdoor leisure activities even though they recognized the level of hazardous particulate matter in the air beforehand, and particulate matter worked as a participation constraint for them; this finding confirmed that it will be necessary in the future to take preventative action more actively against the danger of particulate matter.