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Ein Instrument zu Realisierung einer evidenzbasierten Wettbewerbspolitik

Abstract

This paper shows how to bootstrap hypothesis tests in the context of the Parks’s (1967) Feasible Generalized Least Squares estimator. It then demonstrates that the bootstrap outperforms FGLS(Parks)’s top competitor. The FGLS(Parks) estimator has been a workhorse for the analysis of panel data and seemingly unrelated regression equation systems because it allows the incorporation of cross-sectional correlation together with heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. Unfortunately, the associated, asymptotic standard error estimates are biased downward, often severely. To address this problem, Beck and Katz (1995) developed an approach that uses the Prais-Winsten estimator together with “panel corrected standard errors” (PCSE). While PCSE produces standard error estimates that are less biased than FGLS(Parks), it forces the user to sacrifice efficiency for accuracy in hypothesis testing. The PCSE approach has been, and continues to be, widely used. This paper develops an alternative: a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure to be used in conjunction with the FGLS(Parks) estimator. We demonstrate its effectiveness using an experimental approach that creates artificial panel datasets modelled after actual panel datasets. Our approach provides a superior alternative to existing estimation options by allowing researchers to retain the efficiency of the FGLS(Parks) estimator while producing more accurate hypothesis test results than the PCSE.

Abstract

The great recession (2008) triggered an apparent discrepancy between empirical findings and macroeconomic models based on rational expectations alone. This gap led to a series of recent developments of a behavioral microfoundation of macroeconomics combined with the underlying experimental and behavioral Beauty Contest (BC) literature, which the authors review in this paper. They introduce the reader to variations of the Keynesian Beauty Contest (Keynes, The general theory of employment, interest, and money, 1936), theoretically and experimentally, demonstrating systematic patterns of out-of-equilibrium behavior. This divergence of (benchmark) solutions and bounded rationality observed in human behavior has been resolved through stepwise reasoning, the so-called level k, or cognitive hierarchy models. Furthermore, the authors show how the generalized BC function with limited parameter specifications encompasses relevant micro and macro models. Therefore, the stepwise reasoning models emerge naturally as building blocks for new behavioral macroeconomic theories to understand puzzles like the lacking rise of inflation after the financial crisis, the efficacy of quantitative easing, the forward guidance puzzle, and the effectiveness of temporary fiscal expansion.

Abstract

In the study of Giffen behavior or “Giffenity”, there remains a paradox. On the one hand, the Wold-Juréen (1953) utility function has been touted as the progenitor of a multi-decade search for those two-good, particular utility functions, which exhibit Giffenity. On the other hand, there is no evidence that the Wold-Juréen (1953) utility function has ever been fully evaluated for Giffenity, with perhaps one minor exception, Weber (, 1997). But there, Weber showed that the Giffenity of Good 1 depends upon the relative magnitude of income vis-à-vis the price of Good 2. Weber’s precondition is so vague that it lacks broad appeal. This paper offers a new and a clear cut precondition for Giffen behavior under the Wold-Juréen (1953) utility function. That is, we show that if the price of Good 1 is greater than or equal to the price of Good 2, then Good 1 is a Giffen good.

Abstract

Many studies have suggested that stringent labor protections and higher labor costs can limit foreign direct investment (FDI) in host countries. This would imply that the decisions of foreign firms are sensitive to the degree of flexibility in the labor market in the U.S. The U.S. has a steady stream of immigration, which has preserved the stability of the labor supply for the U.S. market. This makes the U.S. a good test case for the relationship between immigration and FDI because it is not only the largest host for FDI but also has the largest immigrant population in the world in absolute terms and is experiencing a significant reduction in labor supply and an increase in the minimum cost of labor. Utilizing a timeseries analysis of data from 1970 to 2016, this study suggests that expansive immigration policies directly increase FDI inflows in the U.S. and indirectly increase FDI inflows by lowering labor costs and securing a stable supply of labor.

Abstract

This paper explores whether a truth-telling promise can work to reduce the hypothetical bias in preference elicitation. Using an induced value experiment in China with a random nth-price auction, the author finds: 1) Hypothetical bias exists in a random nth-price auction with induced values and making a truth-telling promise can reduce the hypothetical bias. 2) All treatments are demand-revealing except for the hypothetical baseline.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between stock market capitalization to GDP and real GDP in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007, with the objective of determining whether the financial markets played a role as drivers of economic development in these countries or vice versa. The methodology, using a cointegrated Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, is based on the application of three different measures of causality: Granger causality test, Toda-Yamamoto approach and Frequency Domain approach. The results obtained suggest evidence of a causal relationship in both directions between the variables in a significant number of countries, and especially in those where the variables show to be clearly cointegrated (Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia).

Abstract

The author develops a dynamic model with two types of electronic money: reserves for transactions between bankers and zero-maturity deposits for transactions in the non-bank private sector. Using this model, he assesses the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy since the Great Recession. After quantitative easing, keeping the interest on reserves near zero too long might create deflation. The central bank can safely get out of the “low rate-cum-deflation” trap by “raising rate and raising money supply”.