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, temperatures were 20 – 30 percent higher than the seasonal average over much of Europe, from Spain to the Czech Republic. French grape­growing records — which contain histori­ cal climate data — indicated that the event had no equal since 1370. The odds of such a heat wave happening by chance, based on climate trends from 1864 to 2002, were about one in ten million. “The 2003 anomaly can only be accounted for by a combination of global warming and natural variability,” wrote Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. What if a heat wave like the