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Capital Flows to Eastern Europe 2 I . Hans Peter Lmkes and 2. W Michael Blumenthal 3. J i Z Weigl Nicholas Stern 1. Hans Peter Lankes and Nicholas Stern Capital Flows to Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union 2.1.1 Introduction Net capital flows to eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union built up rapidly during the 1980s, reaching around US$5 billion per annum in the sec- ond half of the decade. This was largely in the form of commercial bank loans and trade finance to state-owned foreign trade banks subject to sovereign guar- antees. The

F O U R Refugee Children in Eastern Europe Kostas Tsimoudis1 Kostas Tsimoudis, a Greek refugee child, was born on July 15, 1937, in the vil- lage of Mavroklisi in Thrace about twenty kilometers from the Turkish border. When he retired from his job in Germany in 2000, he returned to Greece and bought a spacious apartment in Alexandroupolis, where he and his wife now live surrounded by modern furniture, old photographs, and shelves of books. In 1998, Kostas wrote a book in German about his experiences during and after the Civil War. He called it A Modern Greek

16 Private Business in Eastern Europe Simon Johnson Amid all the bad economic news from Eastern Europe in the past two years, there has been at least one consistent source of optimism-the rapid develop- ment of the private sector in some parts of some countries. But it remains far from clear whether this development will be fast or deep enough to carry these economies out of their recessions soon. It is also not fully clear why the private sector has developed faster in some places than in others. The policy issues are important. Is there anything that a

T WO The Evacuation of Children to Eastern Europe I am a child of war. That feeling never left me; it still haunts me today. —A refugee child from Thrace evacuated to Bulgaria In the cold spring of 1948, when columns of ragged children were walk- ing through the mountains toward the northern borders of Greece, morale among supporters of the Greek government in Athens was low. During the previous year the Democratic Army had won several important victories, and the Greek press was reporting alarming rumors about an imminent in- vasion of foreign communist

17 Foreign Direct Investment in Eastern Europe: Some Economic Considerations Kenneth A. Froot With the radical transformation of East European economies has come a wave of interest in inward foreign direct investment (FDI). In the past two years, host countries have adopted completely new legal frameworks as well as insti- tutions and agencies to encourage and approve of foreign investments. On the demand side, surveys suggest that almost two-thirds of multinational firms are interested in investing directly in Eastern Europe. Indeed, firms initially

1 Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation Michael Bruno The transformation of Eastern Europe from centrally planned to market econo- mies provides an unprecedented challenge for policymakers in these countries as well as for the international community involved in financing and monitor- ing their economic programs. It also poses an unusual challenge for the eco- nomics profession because there is little prior experience on which to draw for lessons that could be applied to the present context.' According to the customary

9 Fiscal Policy during the Transition in Eastern Europe Roger H. Gordon The transition in Eastern Europe from centrally planned to market economies inevitably will be a complex and lengthy process. Virtually every aspect of these economies will need to change, and at every stage in the process fiscal policy will be a major concern. Several of the East European countries started the transition process gith large government deficits and rapid inflation. Rai- sing government revenue and reducing expenditures in order to eliminate these deficits have

Foreign Trade in Eastern Europe’s Transition: Early Results Dani Rodrik Integration into the world economy is one of the difficult tasks awaiting East European countries in transition. Three of these countries-Hungary, Poland, and (former) Czechoslovakia-have already traveled far along this road. Their economies have opened up dramatically, and trade with the West has expanded rapidly, while trade with the East has collapsed under the joint influence of the demise of the CMEA (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance) and the loss of Soviet markets. This