Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Glickman, PhD, Mark

4 Issues per year


SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2015: 0.288
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2015: 0.358
Impact per Publication (IPP) 2015: 0.250

Online
ISSN
1559-0410
See all formats and pricing

Composite Poisson Models for Goal Scoring

Phil Everson
  • Swarthmore College
/ Paul S Goldsmith-Pinkham
  • Swarthmore College
Published Online: 2008-04-28 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1107

Goal scoring in sports such as hockey and soccer is often modeled as a Poisson process. We work with a Poisson model where the mean goals scored by the home team is the sum of parameters for the home team's offense, the road team's defense, and a home advantage. The mean goals for the road team is the sum of parameters for the road team's offense and for the home team's defense. The best teams have a large offensive parameter value and a small defensive parameter value. A level-2 model connects the offensive and defensive parameters for the k teams. Parameter inference is made by imagining that goals can be classified as being strictly due to offense, to (lack of) defense, or to home-field advantage. Though not a realistic description, such a breakdown is consistent with our model assumptions and the literature, and we can work out the conditional distributions and generate random partitions to facilitate inference about the team parameters. We use the conditional Binomial distribution, given the Poisson totals and the current parameter values, to partition each observed goal total at each iteration in an MCMC algorithm.

Keywords: gibbs sampler; jeffreys’ prior; latent variables; poisson additivity; soccer; two-level model

About the article

Published Online: 2008-04-28


Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1107. Export Citation

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

[1]
Sears Merritt and Aaron Clauset
EPJ Data Science, 2014, Volume 3, Number 1

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in