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Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Mark Glickman PhD

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2015: 0.288
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Impact per Publication (IPP) 2015: 0.250

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Revisiting the Hot Hand Theory with Free Throw Data in a Multivariate Framework

Jeremy Arkes1

1Naval Postgraduate School

Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 6, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1198, January 2010

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Despite the conventional wisdom of the existence of the “hot hand" in basketball, studies have found no or weak evidence for the hot hand in game situations, although stronger evidence in controlled settings. Almost all studies have tested for the hot hand in univariate frameworks, often with inadequate power. I use a sample based on all free throws during the 2005-06 NBA season. With a multivariate framework with individual fixed effects, I find evidence for the “hot hand" in that making the first free throw is associated with a significantly higher probability of making the second free throw.

Keywords: hot hand; basketball; fixed effects

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