Accessible Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter January 9, 2015

Understanding and predicting the global spread of emergent infectious diseases

Dirk Brockmann
From the journal Public Health Forum

Abstract

The emergence and global spread of human infectious diseases has become one of the most serious public health threats of the 21st century. Sophisticated computer simulations have become a key tool for understanding and predicting disease spread on a global scale. Combining theoretical insights from nonlinear dynamics, stochastic processes and complex network theory these computational models are becoming increasingly important in the design of efficient mitigation and control strategies and for public health in general.

Einleitung

Die Entstehung und globale Ausbreitung neuartiger, von Mensch zu Mensch übertragbarer Infektionskrankheiten ist eines der größten Public-Health-Probleme des 21. Jahrhunderts. Detaillierte, umfangreiche Computersimulationen haben sich in diesem Kontext zu einem wichtigen Werkzeug für das bessere Verständnis der Ausbreitungswege und deren Vorhersage entwickelt. In modernen Ausbreitungssimulationen werden Methoden aus der theoretischen und rechnergestützten Physik, der nichtlinearen Dynamik mit Erkenntnissen aus der Theorie komplexer Netzwerke in numerischen Modellen vereint um genauerer Vorhersagen und potenzielle Ausbreitungsszenarien „in silico“ zu untersuchen und damit das Design effizienterer Mitigations- und Kontrollstrategien zu fördern und zu beschleunigen.

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Published Online: 2015-1-9
Published in Print: 2014-10-1

© 2015 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston