9 Planning the Adaptation of Coastal Cities to Climate Change: a Review of 14 Pilot Projects

: The natural disasters deriving from climate change have a growing impact in urban contexts and mainly affect the poorest people. Adaptation to climate change can significantly reduce the impacts if planned. The aim of this chapter is to present the state of adaptation planning, illustrating three international projects that promote it (Climate change initiative, Cancun adaptation framework, Hyogo framework of action) and 14 adaptation pilot projects for coastal cities. The latter are plans, strategies and guidelines produced over the past 5 years for coastal cities from different continents. These case studies are analysed and compared, paying attention to six key aspects: type of tool, aims, identification of the impacts deriving from climate change, time schedule and budget, role of the stakeholders in the planning process, identification of specific measures. It emerges that important steps have been taken in the adaptation to climate change, but there is still a long way to go before having valid adaptation planning tools.


Introduction
The lives and means contributing to the sustenance of hundreds of millions of people over the next 5-10 years will be affected by what is (or is not) done in cities with regard to climate change (Satterthwaite et al. 2007).Cities are the most responsible for greenhouse gases (GHG) and for strategies to reduce their production, especially to reduce the dependency on carbon-based fuels (Romero Lankao 2007).
In urban contexts, natural disasters have devastating effects, especially on the marginal populations of Developing Countries (Wamsler 2004).Almost a billion people live in poor quality dwellings with little access to water, storm drainage and sanitation (UN Habitat 2003) in cites of Africa, Asia, South America and the Caribbean.Until now, the commitment to reduce emissions of GHG has not prevented global warming and the consequent climate change (CC) (World Bank 2010).
It becomes, therefore, a priority to understand which strategies to use in order to reduce the impacts of CC (Tiepolo 2014a).Among the latter, we ought to mention the increase in natural disasters.Without an effective adaptation on a local scale in the years to come, CC will represent one of the most important challenges of the century.
Developing Countries and communities may be at risk of sustaining severe damages due to their geographic position, low income and insufficient operational capacity by local administrations, as well as the major dependence of farming on climate conditions.This chapter presents the approaches and problems of planning the main strategies for the prevention and reduction of CC impacts promoted by the major United Nations organisations over the last 10 years.It then closely analyses 14 pilot projects (plans, strategies and guidelines) produced from 2009 to the present day, in order to adapt coastal cities to CC, with the aim of revealing the main positions on the matter of prevention and limitations.In selected cases, they differ in numerous aspects, particularly the social, economic and political context in which they were produced.
The concept is now more up to date than ever before but, paradoxically, to date, few comparative studies have been dedicated to planning instruments for adaptation to CC.In one of these (Birkmann 2010), a second generation of urban adaptation plans was recommended to overcome the critical points of plans produced in the mid-2000s.
This chapter intercepts the second generation plans to identify the main changes which have been made.

Action of the Multilateral Bodies to Favour the Prevention of Natural Disasters
The 2007 can be considered as the year in which the leading multilateral organizations became aware of the urgency to make decisions to reduce the urban impacts of extreme natural phenomena.
UN-Habitat dedicates the third volume of the "Global report on human settlements" to different ways to reduce the impacts of disasters in cities.The most important measures and proposals put forward include disaster risk assessment, land use planning, early warning and reconstruction (UN-Habitat 2007).CC is not presented as such, but is presumed in the various cases (tropic cyclones, heat waves, floods, rising sea levels).The consequences triggered by CC include migrations from affected areas into the cities, and the resulting increase of informal settlements from flood prone areas.
The fourth report of the IPCC states that there are now "impacts for which adaptation is the only available and appropriate response" (IPCC 2007).The urgency of tackling the problems emerges, therefore, without there being "a clear vision of the limits of adaptation, or of the costs, partly because the effective measures of adapta-tion depend largely on specific, geographic and climatic risk factors, as well as on institutional, political and financial impediments".
Over the years that followed, numerous initiatives for adaptation to CC were launched, three of which deserve particular attention.

Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
In 2005, the United Nations convened the second world conference on the reduction of disasters in Kobe, Japan.On that occasion, the delegations taking part drew up an international agreement to reduce the disaster risk.This agreement was called the Hyogo framework for action (HFA).The general aim was to build up the resilience of countries and communities to disasters by substantially reducing the losses (human, social, economic or environmental) caused by disasters by the year 2015.The HFA highlights five priorities of action, the guidelines and the tools to achieve disaster resilience for vulnerable communities within the scope of sustainable development (UNISDR 2005).
After the adoption of the HFA, numerous efforts at global, regional, national and local levels were undertaken for a better systemisation of the reduction of the risk of disasters.
The HFA has three strategic aims: 1. Integration of disaster prevention in sustainable development policies; 2. Development and strengthening of the institutions, mechanisms and capacities at all levels, particularly at community level, to build up the response to risks; 3. Inclusion of the risk reduction in preparing for emergencies and in programmes for the reconstruction of the communities affected.
There are five priorities of actions: -to ensure that the reduction of risks and disasters is a national and local priority with a strong institutional base for implementation; -to identify, assess and monitor the risks of disaster ad strengthen the pre-alarm devices; -to use awareness, innovation and traininging to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels; -to reduce the risk factors; -to strengthen the preparation for catastrophes.
HFA has the guidelines, priorities for action and means to achieve resilience to disasters in vulnerable communities.HFA clearly highlights that collaborative international cooperation is required to provide knowledge, skills and incentives for the DRR (UNISDR 2007).
At one year after its expiry, the balance is definitely positive on paper, in that 168 countries have signed this agreement, but it is still early to pass judgement on what will effectively emerge from HFA.

City and Climate Change Initiative (UN-HABITAT)
In August 2008, UN-HABITAT launched "City and climate change initiative" (CCCI), with the support of the Norwegian government.The aim was to tackle the effects of CC on cities in Developing Countries.The project began in four cities, including Kampala and Maputo in Africa.Subsequently it was extended to Beira, Bobo Djoulasso, Kigali, Mombasa, Saint Louis, Vilankulo and Walvis Bay (UN-Habitat 2012).
CCCI aims to strengthen the activities of preparation and disaster mitigation of cities in Least Developed Countries, focusing on practices of good governance, responsibility and tangible initiatives for local governments and communities, developing a series of tools in support of decision-makers and professionals to tackle the impact of CC (adaptation) and to contribute to reducing emissions of GHG (mitigation).
Thanks to this initiative, the role currently played by cities to launch initiatives of adaptation and mitigation is sufficiently acknowledged in debates on CC.Moreover, the CCCI helps small and medium towns in Developing Countries, which are largely ignored by the international financial institutions and other agencies.
The fact that the project focuses mainly on the poor living in cities and other vulnerable groups is an element that distinguishes CCCI from other CC programmes.
At local level, the initiative has been very effective in helping cities to undertake actions with regard to CC, helping the formulation of strategies and plans of action.
The programme has also succeeded in increasing the awareness by local authorities of the effects of CC, generating an understanding of the importance of launching immediate and concrete actions within normal planning practices.In cities, the participative approach of CCCI, which involves residents and professionals, led to greater awareness and a strong sense of belonging to the activities of the Initiative among the various parties concerned, including the basic level.However, the importance of paying closer attention to understand the social-economic impacts of interventions on local communities also emerged.
A key component of CCCI is undoubtedly to encourage national -local communications, involving the main stakeholders in CC, including financiers.The assessments at the national level clearly indicate that this communication is vital in order to create and institutionalise a broad and deep support for CC interventions at the city level.
Six years after its launch, numerous initiatives have been accomplished, particularly in Asia, where about 50 cities have been involved.At the end of this phase, however, knowledge on CC affecting the urban environment continues to be vague and approximate: studies on Kigali, Maputo and Mombasa are far from adequately characterising CC (Tiepolo 2014a).

Cancun Adaptation Framework
During the Conference on Climate Change held in Cancun in 2010, numerous nations signed the Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF).The aim of the CAF is to improve adaptation, also through international cooperation and the consistent consideration of matters relating to adaptation.In practice, the strengthening of adaptation actions aims to reduce vulnerability and to build up resilience in Developing Countries, taking into account their urgent needs.
The CAF is split into five groups (UNFCCC 2010): 1. Implementation: -Plans, priorities and interventions for adaptation through existing channels to provide information on the support provided; -Process for putting the administrations of Developing Countries in position to formulate and implement national adaptation plans, and to invite other countries to use the methods formulated to sustain such plans; -Programme of work which considers approaches to tackle losses and damages associated with the impacts of climate change.2. Sustenance: Developed Countries sustain Developing Countries, taking into account the needs of those who are particularly vulnerable.

Involvement of institutions:
-At the global level: institution of a regulation committee to promote adaptation consistent with the Convention; -At the regional level: the strengthening and, where necessary, the creation of regional centres and networks, particularly in Developing Countries; -At the national level: the strengthening and, where necessary, signing of institutional agreements at the national level.

Definition of principles:
-follow a participative and completely transparent approach, taking into consideration the vulnerable groups, all the communities and the ecosystems; -base the definition on scientific foundations as well as the knowledge of the native peoples; 5. Involvement of stakeholders: multilateral, regional and national organisations, public and private sector, civil society and other parties concerned are invited to undertake and sustain adaptation at all levels.

Comparison of Local Adaptation Pilot Projects
In recent years, attention toward CC has increased.The IPCC has acknowledged that society is adapting to CC through spontaneous reactions and planned decision-making processes, although these are still not widespread (Adger et al. 2007).This attention can be attributed to three main factors: -more awareness of the vulnerability of social and environmental systems to CC (Adger et al. 2007); -growing awareness that extreme climate events are caused by anthropogenic activity (Hegerl et al. 2007;Trenberth et al. 2007); -awareness of the inevitable consequences of CC, regardless of future emissions (Meehl et al. 2007).
At the national level, many Developing Countries have drawn up their own National adaptation program of action (NAPA), which defines the adaptation priorities.Developed Countries too have launched national adaptation plans.
The European Union (EU), for example, has developed the White Paper, indicating the possibilities for adaptation (CEC 2007), and some EU countries have developed national adaptation strategies (Swart et al. 2009).
In the United States, the National Research Council carried out an adaptation study through America's Climate Choices Initiative (NRC 2010) and the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, set up in 2009 to develop useful recommendations for the adaptation policy, both at national and international levels.
Australia developed the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (COAG 2007) and made significant investments in scientific research through the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisations (CSIRO).
To try to understand which measures the national programmes generate at the local level, we selected 14 planning pilot projects for adaptation to CC for coastal cities.Even if the national and regional levels provide the boundary conditions for planning and interventions at that level for CC, it is only on this scale that interventions can be planned, indicating specific adaptation measures, appropriate to the specific nature of the hazard and the area exposed to it.Coastal cities were chosen because they have a higher density in terms of population and key infrastructures exposed: harbours, warehouses, railway terminals, industry for the transformation of imported raw materials or docks for warehousing agricultural products before exportation.
The 14 cases (Figure 9.1) include plans, strategies and guidelines in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North, South America and the Caribbean.Starting from the criteria selected by Birkmann (2010), the analysis was developed to account for the six key factors: -type of tool (plan, strategy and guidelines) -general view and objectives of the tool -identification of the local impacts deriving from climate change -time schedule and budget -direct and indirect involvement of stakeholders in planning/implementation -identification of structural and other measures The cases²4 were identified to try to cover all continents in order to have a global vision.Evidently the contexts were different in terms of size of the urban area and population density.Santiago and Esmeraldas have an administrative territory in excess of 15,000 km 2 , while Vancouver and Copenhagen cover just 115 and 77 km 2 , respectively.The population density varies from 12 res./km 2 to almost 20,000 res./km 2 (Surat).

Type of Pilot Projects
The pilot projects analysed were 7 strategies, 5 plans and 2 guidelines (Figure 9.2).Each of these pilot projects has a couple of important features which should always be present.For example, data and maps are indispensable for the operational use of the document.If, however, they do not present possible scenarios, they risk making the utility of a document ineffectual.It is also essential to explain the aim of the document and the hazard for which the impact is intended to be reduced.This aspect is clearly indicated in guidelines only.

General View and Objectives
The general aim of these projects is to incorporate adaptation into a broader framework of risk reduction.In general, these projects contain three essential parts: -Description of the climate (trend, most frequent extreme events) -Presentation of the political, economic and social situations -Measures/strategies to reduce impacts These three components are vital for the development of the planning projects.This is especially true for the presentation of the climatic and urban context, because they lead to the generation of specific responses.

Identification of the Local Impacts Resulting from Climate Change
Within the different pilot projects, the main impacts of CC on the 14 cities have been identified (Figure 9.3).
If we analyse the impacts in the 14 cities according to the Human Development Index (HDI) of the countries in which they are located, focusing on countries with an HDI lower than 0.65 (Figure 9.4), we have no impact on coastal erosion or loss of infrastructure.
This result can possibly be explained by modest urban expansion along the coast and also with a poor development of infrastructures, such as to render the damage due to CC as irrelevant.
In the case of countries with an HDI higher than 0.65 (Figure 9.5), the impacts on health-hygiene and on poverty disappear.However, we find confirmation that, in BRICS and in Developing countries, CC and the extreme events related to it have an impact on the poorer people, worsening their already precarious conditions.

Time Schedule and Budget
In the pilot projects analysed, the time schedule of the individual activities to be carried out and the budget are often developed together.The 14 cases can be divided into three groups, depending on the level of definition of these elements:  -Absent (6 of 14): only the priorities are indicated, without any cost estimate (e.g.: Surat, Port-au-Prince, Sorsogon).
In some plans (e.g.: Durban and Montevideo), attention is focused on certain precise interventions and only for these are budget and time schedule given: in Developing Countries these are almost always absent.In general, we can say that the relationship between stakeholders and policy makers is always unclear in the choice for a suitable option.
We ought to remember the importance of prioritising the steps, developing those that can have the greatest impact.It is usually important to draw up a detailed risk assessment as a basis for defining the priorities of the single steps.

Direct and indirect Involvement of Stakeholders
The process of planning project preparation allows us to understand the main stakeholders involved: -most of the case studies (6 out of 14) were developed directly by the municipality or other local urban authorities (e.g.: Montevideo, Copenhagen); -in 3 cases, a team of national and international agencies was set up (e.g.: Santiago, Surat); -in 3 more cases, civil society was involved (e.g.: Cartagena, Durban); -in 2 cases, the initiatives were developed within international projects and private initiatives (e.g.: Port-au-Prince, Semarang).
Only in the case of plans are the local authorities directly involved.
The involvement of the local stakeholders, especially residents' organisations, cannot be taken for granted.In recent years, the experiences of community based adaptation have multiplied.The realisation of bottom-up measures is prevented, however, by the impossibility of applying this method in all the most vulnerable communities and, sometimes, by the need to make these actions consistent and cohesive with other local political, climatic and physical problems (Satterthwaite et al. 2007).

Identification of Structural and Other Measures
All the pilot projects envisage the creation of measures to reduce impacts.The strategy for Melbourne presents the highest number of measures (20).On the contrary, the plan of Port-au-Prince envisages just 7 measures (Figure 9.6).
Another key factor is the frequency of the structural and non-structural measures envisaged (Figure 9.7).
By "structural measures for adaptation" we essentially mean works aimed at reducing the effects of a hazard, like resettlement, storm water drainage, dams, flood barriers, basement for buildings, seawalls, etc.In general, these measures are expensive but they have a definite impact.
By "non-structural measures" we mean those actions aimed at reducing the effects of a hazard, using intangible solutions such as preliminary risk mapping, land use planning, early warning systems, emergency kits... (FIFMTF 1992).
The measure most used is the resettlement of residents of flood prone areas to safer places.This measure is cheaper than many others but it is necessary to take into account the fact that in Developing Countries, resettlement is often poorly conceived and things deteriorate even further when it comes to putting it into practice, as verified in the case of Maputo, a recognized example of failure (Tiepolo 2014b).Moreover, it requires enforcement from the local government, to prevent new settlers from permanently occupying the areas where resettlement has taken place.
Another recurrent measure is the maintenance of storm water drains.All kinds of solid waste are often thrown into these canals, or they accumulate due to run-off.In other cases, sand accumulates or vegetation grows.When this happens, surrounding streets and properties are flooded at minimal rainfall.If maintenance is applied regularly, good results can easily be achieved.
Others are related to different forms of "planning": contingency plans, drainage networks plans and planning urban vegetation in an "adaptive way" (for example, identify the correct area where to plant trees, or mangroves).Among the 12 non-structural measures (Figure 9.8), those most frequently envisaged are the early warning systems and creation of awareness in the population with regard to problems linked to risks.The early warning system is an indispensable measure as it informs the population in advance of the imminent hazard, allowing them to make preparations.The greater the advance in warning, the more positive the outcomes will be.
Creation of awareness is an important measure, as it allows the people to know what could happen in the case of extreme natural events and tells them what to do when the early warning comes.Some risk analyses (Ponte 2014) have, however, shown how important participation can also be in the creation of awareness and training.Adaptation plans conceived without much participation, involving only activities for training and the creation of awareness, seem destined to failure.
We have seen that there are more non-structural than structural measures.This is explained by the fact they cost less and are quicker to achieve.However, it is still hard to estimate the impact of non-structural measures in advance.Whether the population will be able to behave appropriately when the alarm is given is one example.Viceversa, structural measures, such as new drainage channels and their maintenance, enables us to know in advance the amount of water that they we will be capable of carrying.
Lately, information related to the costs envisaged for the different structural and non-structural measures are always missed.

Conclusions
The analysis of 14 pilot projects recently adopted for planning city adaptation to CC in the coastal areas has highlighted methods of formulation, content, level of detail, measures and also visions that are rather different.
Obviously, the local planning capacity is different too, not to mention the capacity to implement the measures envisaged and to make sure that they continue working over time.For example, the plan of Port-au-Prince presents few adaptation measures: a decision consistent with the current situation in the Haitian capital, which still has to get back on its feet following the devastating earthquake in 2010.
Only 4 out of 14 case studies (Durban, Sorsogon, Surat, Esmeraldas) considered the guidelines suggested by HFA and CCI (the case of Durban is definitely the most important).The 14 local planning tools that we have analysed show that very few recommendations developed at an international level are adopted on a local scale, despite the long and costly action to create awareness developed so far within the framework of HFA, by UN-Habitat, the CAF and many other initiatives.An explanation for this evident detachment would require a deeper analysis of the local dynamics that have led to the preparation of the individual projects.However, it would be best to remember these results when considering the development of a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction.In Melbourne and Sorsogon, it's worth noticing the effort to involve foreign financers in the implementation of particular measures.This is definitely an innovative aspect to be assessed and analysed in order to understand its possible future developments.
The 14 adaptation pilot projects examined do not provide information on the existence of an underlying geographic information system, which would seem essential for the identification of the adaptation measures, for the monitoring and for the assessment of the projects.And, at the end of the day, it is the monitoring of adaptation that is missing.It could help to identify the measures of greatest impact and those that are harder to achieve.
Despite the problems identified so far, and taking into account the considerations of Birkmann (2010), we need to acknowledge that considerable steps have been made in the adaptation to CC.The greatest progress has been recorded where there is greater social and political stability, and where the impacts of CC are well known.Despite everything, the path to obtaining planning pilot projects capable of promoting adaptation still seems very long, although we do know that there will never be an adaptation capable of eliminating the impacts of CC.

Figure 9 . 3 :
Figure 9.3: Impacts of CC according the 14 pilot projects.Numbers indicate how many times impacts recur in the projects.

Figure 9 . 6 :
Figure 9.6: Number of measures for adaptation to CC envisaged by the 14 planning pilot projects.

Figure 9 . 7 :
Figure 9.7: Structural measures envisaged by the 14 projects for adaptation to CC.

Figure 9 . 8 :
Figure 9.8: Non-structural measures envisaged by the 14 projects for adaptation to CC.