The Plausibility of Future Scenarios: Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning

Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele

Published by transcript Verlag 2020

The Plausibility of Future Scenarios

Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning

Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele
Funded by: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

In the series Science Studies

https://doi.org/10.1515/9783839453193

Overview
Contents

About this book

What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundation remain unexplored in previous research.
Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory, and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how plausibility assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.

Author / Editor information

Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele is a postdoctoral research associate at the Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies (ZIRIUS), University of Stuttgart. Her research areas are scenarios and foresight methods in the context of energy transformation processes and sustainability. She also works as a facilitator at the Oxford Scenarios Programme at Said Business School, University of Oxford.

Supplementary Materials

Leseprobe

Topics

Frontmatter Publicly Available Download PDF	1
Content Publicly Available Download PDF	5
List of Figures Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	9
List of Tables Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	11
Summary of the book Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	13
1 Introduction Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	17
2 Scenario planning: characteristics and current issues Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	27
3 Scenario plausibility: emerging debates in research and practice Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	57
4 Conceptual explorations: plausibility across disciplines Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	73
5 Empirical research: Methodology to study scenario plausibility Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	117
6 Experimental study: quantitative research findings Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	137
7 Experimental study: qualitative research findings Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	171
8 Synthesis: A conceptual map of scenario plausibility Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	193
9 Conclusions and outlook Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	215
Abbreviations Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	225
Acknowledgments Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	227
References Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	229

(Deutsch)

Language: English
Publisher: transcript Verlag
Audience: Professional and scholarly;
Pages
- Main content: 264
Keywords: Scenarios; Foresight; Plausibility; Epistemology; Future Studies; Science; Society; Sociology of Science; Sociology of Technology; Environmental Sociology; Sustainability; Sociology

eBook

Published: July 27, 2020
ISBN: 9783839453193