Seismic hazard analysis by neo - deterministic seismic hazard analysis approach ( NDSHA ) for Kosovo

: It is favorable to re - evaluate the seismic hazard for a given territory, since in the course of time new methods are developed and new data are gathered that can enable more sophisticated ( physically sound ) and reliable assessment of the seismic hazard. Therefore, it is mandatory to re - evaluate the seismic hazard for Kosovo, considering the seismic sources in Kosovo. The data of this article in ﬂ uence the reduction of seismic risk for the territory of Kosovo.


Introduction
In terms of seismic activity, the territory of Kosovo represents a very active field, where catastrophic earthquakes of an autochthonous character are expected. The data on earthquakes from the past show the existing of catastrophic earthquakes in some places of Kosovo. From the historical earthquakes from 1456 which hit Prizren with a maximum intensity IX (MSK-64), then in 1662, Peç district was hit by an earthquake with a maximum intensity of VIII degree according to MSK-64 [1]. Strong earthquakes appeared later, in recent times, as in 1921 with an epicenter of intensity IX MSK-64 in the Urosevac-Vitina-Gnjilane region, then the 1980 earthquake that hit the Kopaonika region with an intensity of VIII MSK-64, then the earthquake of 24 April 2002 with an intensity in the epicenter VIII according to MSK-64, which occurred in the area of the municipality of Gnjilane, and finally the East Earthquake on 10 March 2010, with an intensity in the epicenter VII according to the MSK-64. The territory of Kosovo is also characterized by being subjected to strong oscillations from earthquakes, whose foci were outside the territory of Kosovo, in Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro and Serbia [2][3][4][5]. For the last few decades, thanks to the use of modern instruments, conditions have been provided for instrumental recording of motions induced by strong earthquakes in different geological conditions so that the elements of effects from different geological conditions are contained in the obtained records [6][7][8][9]. This provides a database from which the effects from different geological conditions will be obtained through further investigations. Some other works done in literature for different motivation are also important that interesting results were obtained in some other works .
This approach is based on the calculation of synthetic seismograms for reference earthquakes. Synthetic seismograms are calculated using the method of the normal mode sum (up to 1 Hz) of the research sites on 0.2 × 0.2/0.1 × 0.1-degree grids (two cases) and reduced by the size of the maximum expected earthquake. It is the maximum value of ground acceleration considered as seismic hazard parameter. The goal of the research is to create a map of the seismic hazard of Kosovo using by Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Approach (NDSHA). One of the ways to mitigate the seismic risk is to develop a seismic hazard map for a specific area using a deterministic approach. Another important element is that there are no such types of maps that are the basis for urban planning in seismically active areas, such as the territory of Kosovo in this case.

Materials and methods
In order to assess the seismic hazard it is needed to know seismic input such as earthquake catalogue coordinates which is 18-24°E-40.5-44.4°N, epicentral map, seismotectonic characteristics of Kosovo, geological and neotectonics structure of Kosovo, definition of seismogenic zones, fault plane solution of seismic zones, crust and local soil models.
The results of geological, tectonic, neotectonics and seismological investigations, which were carried out on the territory of Kosovo, were used to assess the seismic hazard, with the resulting non-deterministic seismic  hazard maps for that territory. In principle, the method is based on the calculation of synthetic seismograms for reference earthquakes, which are calculated using the normal summation method for page receivers on 0.2 × 0.2 and 0.1 × 0.1 grid degrees.

NDSHA
There are several advantages of neo-deterministic approach as shown in Figure 1: • An approach to generate realistic synthetic seismograms using the modal summation method. • The ground motion is modeled for any location, using a large set of event scenarios, starting from available seismic source information and regional crustal structure techniques. • No need for an attenuation function.
The NDSHA enables: • Defining the hazard from the envelope of values of ground movement parameter (such as acceleration) defined using a large number of earthquake scenarios. • Inclusion of all new available information on geology and geophysics, including both recurrence information and spatio-temporal information on expected earthquakes obtained by pattern recognition techniques. • It considers uncertainties and gaps in the available data, using a large set of scenarios and parametric tests.
Seismic hazard assessment is performed in three phases: • Seismic sources, their models of the Earth's crust and the basic parameters of earthquakes that will be taken as representative are defined. • Relation is determined by the selected acceleration parameter depending on the magnitude of the earthquake, the epicentral distance and the influence of local soil parameters (site conditions). • The selected seismic hazard parameter is calculated for each node of the network that divides the area under investigation.

Results and discussions
The acceleration parameter for mapping in the NDSHA is given by peak value of acceleration. The obtained results are displayed in Figure 2.

Conclusions
This scientific work represents an achievement on the methodology and practice of seismic hazard assessment in Kosovo and lays the basis for a modern earthquake risk mitigation policy. The results can be used by national and local authorities, as well as interested organizations and individuals involved in the field of planning and management, earthquake-resistant structures, etc.
Funding information: This research received no external funding.
Author contributions: The authors' contribution is equal.

Conflict of interest:
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Ethical approval: The conducted research is not related to either human or animal use.
Data availability statement: The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.