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The Consequences of the 1959–1961 Chinese Famine for Educational Attainment

Margaret J. Lay and Johannes Norling EMAIL logo

Abstract

This paper finds that the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–1961 reduced lifetime educational attainment by up to 3.8 years for people who lived in areas most severely hit by the famine. Using geographical variation in famine intensity, information about place of residence during the famine, and educational attainment recorded in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, the paper demonstrates that the decline in educational attainment was particularly sharp for women. This decline interrupted substantial gains in schooling achieved in China during the middle part of the twentieth century.

JEL Classification: I20; O12; Q18; N35

Acknowlegement

This work was supported by the NICHD (T32 HD007339, Funder ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000071) and NIA training grant (T32 AG000221) as part of the University of Michigan Population Studies Center training program. The authors gratefully acknowledge the use of the services and facilities of the Population Studies Center (funded by NICHD Center Grant R24 HD041028, Funder Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000071). The authors also gratefully acknowledge the National Bureau of Statistics, China, for providing the census data used in this research. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are solely the authors’ and do not represent the opinions or policy of these funders or agencies.

Appendix

A Delayed Schooling

In Section 5.2, we show that women aged 13–15 in 1959 were less likely to complete primary school if they experienced severe famine. Given the standard schooling schedule, this finding is surprising. A child who begins the 6 years of primary school at age 6 should be done by age 12. Departure from this normal schooling schedule could leave a child in primary school past her twelfth birthday. In order for a child to still be attending primary school after age 12, she would either need to have begun primary school after age 6 or to have intervals during which her schooling was interrupted. We cannot use the CHARLS to measure the frequency of these departures from the normal schooling schedule because the survey does not record age at first schooling and does not record schooling interruptions. We similarly do not know of another data source that records sufficiently detailed schooling histories for these cohorts.

Instead, we use data from the 1982 census, the earliest available census for which microdata are publicly available, to calculate the frequency of departures from this normal schooling schedule in the early 1980s (Minnesota Population Center 2019). The 1982 census records the highest level of schooling completed by each person aged 6 and older, and identifies whether each person aged 15 and older is currently attending school. Although this information does not identify the age at which a person started school, we can use it to identify people aged 16 who are in school but have not yet completed junior high school. A person who began primary school at age 7 and continued without interruption should complete junior high school by age 16. A substantial share of people departed from this normal schedule: 9.1% of children who were aged 16 and attending school in 1982 had not yet completed junior high school. This share was slightly higher for boys than girls, 9.7% versus 8.0%. These rates were similar in the 1990 census, 10.2% and 8.3%. Again, although these calculations do not directly demonstrate that children aged 13 and older were still attending primary school at the start of the famine, they suggest that departures from standard progress through school were somewhat common in China during the last half of the twentieth century.

B Robustness

Figure 6 presents the main education findings by sex. The estimates in this figure are calculated using as a measure famine intensity the ratio of each prefecture’s population in 1982 who were born between 1950 and 1952 to the population in 1982 who were born between 1959 and 1961, and using 3-year birth cohorts between 1941 and 1961 (with 1938–40 as the omitted cohort). In this section, we demonstrate the robustness of these estimates to alternative construction of the famine intensity measure and alternative definitions of the cohorts.

B.1 Famine Intensity Measure

First, we use the population born between 1953 and 1955 as the numerator in the famine intensity measure. Figure 9 repeats the estimates in Figure 6 using this new intensity measure. The estimates change only slightly, if at all. For example, using either famine intensity measure, women born between 1944 and 1946 who experience severe famine complete about 0.55 fewer years of schooling than do women in the control (1938–40) cohort who experience severe famine. This comparison suggests that the particular choice of 1950–52 as the reference cohort, although somewhat arbitrary, does not drive the findings.

Figure 9: 
              Robustness of Findings in Figure 6 to Numerator of Famine Intensity Measure.
              
                Notes: The famine intensity measure used to calculate the estimates in Figure 6 has as its numerator the population born between 1950 and 1952. These findings are estimated using the population born between 1953 and 1955 in the numerator of the famine intensity measure. See appendix B and notes to Figure 6.
Figure 9:

Robustness of Findings in Figure 6 to Numerator of Famine Intensity Measure.

Notes: The famine intensity measure used to calculate the estimates in Figure 6 has as its numerator the population born between 1950 and 1952. These findings are estimated using the population born between 1953 and 1955 in the numerator of the famine intensity measure. See appendix B and notes to Figure 6.

Second, we use the cohort born between 1956 and 1958 as the denominator of the famine intensity measure. Figure 10 repeats the estimates in Figure 6 using this new intensity measure. The estimates are generally closer to zero, and every 95% confidence interval includes zero. If cohort sizes in 1959–61 simply followed pre-existing trends in cohort sizes, then the choice of denominator would matter little to the estimates. The weakening of the findings when an earlier cohort is used indicates that the particular 1959–61 cohort is meaningful and reflects the unique mortality and fertility conditions during the famine.

Figure 10: 
              Robustness of Findings in Figure 6 to Denominator of Famine Intensity Measure.
              
                Notes: The famine intensity measure used to calculate the estimates in Figure 6 has as its denominator the population born between 1959 and 1961 (the years of the famine). These findings are estimated using the population born between 1956 and 1958 in the denominator of the famine intensity measure. See appendix B and notes to Figure 6.
Figure 10:

Robustness of Findings in Figure 6 to Denominator of Famine Intensity Measure.

Notes: The famine intensity measure used to calculate the estimates in Figure 6 has as its denominator the population born between 1959 and 1961 (the years of the famine). These findings are estimated using the population born between 1956 and 1958 in the denominator of the famine intensity measure. See appendix B and notes to Figure 6.

B.2 Cohort Definition

First, we define cohorts by normal progress through school in 1959, the year the famine began. The omitted birth cohort remains 1938–40, people aged 19 and older at the start of the famine and likely done with high school. The first two cohorts, 1941–43 and 1944–46, are the same as in the main findings, and represent people of senior high school age (aged 15–18) and junior high school age (aged 12–15) at the start of the famine. The third cohort consists of people, born between 1947 and 1952, who are primary school age (aged 6–12) at the start of the famine. The fourth cohort, born between 1953 and 1958, is too young to attend school at the start of the famine. The final cohort is born during the famine. The estimates in Figure 11 have the same interpretation as those in Figure 5: Years of completed schooling declines, especially for girls of high school age during the famine. Primary and junior high school completion rates decline, although this decline is statistically significant only for girls of junior high school age during the famine. Senior high school completion rates decline most substantially for girls born during the famine.

Figure 11: 
              Robustness of Findings in Figure 6 to Cohort Definition.
              
                Notes: Cohorts are grouped according to normal progress through school by the start of the famine. See appendix B and notes to Figure 6.
Figure 11:

Robustness of Findings in Figure 6 to Cohort Definition.

Notes: Cohorts are grouped according to normal progress through school by the start of the famine. See appendix B and notes to Figure 6.

Second, we use the same seven 3-year birth cohorts between 1941 and 1961 as in the main analysis, but with people born immediately after the famine between 1962 and 1964 as the omitted cohort, instead of 1938–40. As depicted in Figure 12, the estimates for boys change little relative to Figure 5, suggesting that the famine had little effect on the schooling of boys born after the famine. However, the estimates for girls all shift upwards. For example, all cohorts between 1941 and 1955 now have a positive interaction effect with famine severity, relative to the omitted post-famine cohort’s interaction effect with famine severity. This comparison suggests that the negative consequences of the famine may have continued for girls born after the famine ended.

Figure 12: 
              Robustness of Findings in Figure 6 to Choice of Omitted Cohort.
              
                Notes: In Figure 5, the omitted (reference) cohort consists of people born between 1938 and 1940. The estimates in this figure are calculated using people born just after the famine between 1962 and 1964 as the omitted cohort. See appendix B and notes to Figure 6.
Figure 12:

Robustness of Findings in Figure 6 to Choice of Omitted Cohort.

Notes: In Figure 5, the omitted (reference) cohort consists of people born between 1938 and 1940. The estimates in this figure are calculated using people born just after the famine between 1962 and 1964 as the omitted cohort. See appendix B and notes to Figure 6.

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Published Online: 2020-02-01

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