Forecasting Stock Market Trends

Abstract

Forecasting is a difficult area of management. In this article, we deal with macroforecasting. The development and assessment of econometric methods for use in empirical finance and macroeconomics, with special emphasis on problems of prediction, is very important. Stock market analysis, also known as technical analysis, is the process of deriving patterns from price movement. In the literature, different methods have been applied in order to predict stock market returns. These methods can be grouped in four major categories: technical analysis methods, fundamental analysis methods, traditional time series forecasting, and machine learning methods. Technical analysts, known as chartists, attempt to predict the market by tracing patterns that come from the study of charts that describe historic data of the market. This study examines the effectiveness of technical analysis on US stocks for long range and shorter term.