Abstract
In recent years, American politics has been defined by party polarization driven in part by Americans’ diverging attitudes toward immigration. In this article, I suggest that Donald Trump was able to capitalize on this polarization and on the way in which race is implicated in the issue of immigration. He did so by appealing to the attitudes held by two distinct groups of white Americans – those who possess a sense of animosity toward members of immigrant groups like Muslims and Latinos, and separately, whites who may demonstrate little out-group hostility, but instead have a strong sense of solidarity with their racial group. I show how white hostility toward Latinos and Muslims and white racial consciousness have become two distinct forces in American politics, driving opposition to immigration and bolstering support for Donald Trump above and beyond other presidential candidates, regardless of their party affiliations.
Appendix
The Relationship Between Racial Attitudes and Immigration Opinion.
| Decrease Immigration | Immigration Bad for US | End Birthright Citizenship | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White Consciousness | 0.170*** | 0.249*** | 0.216*** |
| (0.041) | (0.050) | (0.068) | |
| Average of Hispanic and Muslim Thermometers | −0.269*** | −0.271*** | −0.200** |
| (0.047) | (0.059) | (0.086) | |
| Party ID | 0.060* | −0.042 | 0.308*** |
| (0.033) | (0.039) | (0.053) | |
| Unemployed | −0.001 | 0.022 | 0.165*** |
| (0.039) | (0.045) | (0.056) | |
| Negative National Economic Evaluations | 0.112** | 0.077 | 0.273*** |
| (0.046) | (0.048) | (0.072) | |
| Education | −0.109*** | −0.161*** | 0.063 |
| (0.033) | (0.037) | (0.053) | |
| Age | 0.071 | −0.037 | 0.248*** |
| (0.046) | (0.049) | (0.071) | |
| Female | 0.040** | 0.052** | −0.042 |
| (0.020) | (0.023) | (0.035) | |
| Constant | 0.517*** | 0.400*** | 0.181* |
| (0.052) | (0.061) | (0.095) | |
| Observations | 837 | 837 | 424 |
| R-squared | 0.270 | 0.243 | 0.412 |
Source: 2016 ANES Pilot Study.
Note: Table entries are OLS coefficients. Standard errors in parentheses. All variables in model coded to range from zero to one. Data are weighted. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1, two-tailed.
Racial Attitudes and Candidate Evaluations in January 2016.
| Trump | Clinton | Sanders | Cruz | Rubio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Consciousness | 0.231*** | 0.068 | −0.052 | 0.083* | 0.072* |
| (0.057) | (0.042) | (0.043) | (0.048) | (0.044) | |
| Average of Hispanic and Muslim Thermometers | −0.204*** | 0.198*** | 0.373*** | 0.120** | 0.151*** |
| (0.066) | (0.063) | (0.060) | (0.058) | (0.055) | |
| Party ID | 0.429*** | −0.487*** | −0.362*** | 0.470*** | 0.419*** |
| (0.040) | (0.037) | (0.034) | (0.036) | (0.035) | |
| Unemployed | 0.045 | −0.010 | −0.022 | −0.052 | −0.044 |
| (0.046) | (0.043) | (0.042) | (0.047) | (0.042) | |
| Negative National Economic Evaluations | 0.110** | −0.370*** | −0.219*** | 0.160*** | 0.073 |
| (0.054) | (0.046) | (0.049) | (0.050) | (0.048) | |
| Education | −0.011 | −0.033 | −0.065* | 0.014 | 0.042 |
| (0.043) | (0.033) | (0.035) | (0.037) | (0.035) | |
| Age | 0.184*** | 0.086* | −0.113** | 0.005 | 0.018 |
| (0.060) | (0.049) | (0.054) | (0.049) | (0.046) | |
| Female | −0.044* | 0.035 | 0.007 | −0.032 | −0.007 |
| (0.026) | (0.022) | (0.022) | (0.022) | (0.021) | |
| Constant | 0.106 | 0.624*** | 0.676*** | −0.001 | 0.057 |
| (0.069) | (0.067) | (0.065) | (0.065) | (0.057) | |
| Observations | 837 | 837 | 831 | 833 | 828 |
| R-squared | 0.378 | 0.530 | 0.458 | 0.346 | 0.291 |
Source: 2016 ANES Pilot Study.
Note: Table entries are OLS coefficients. Standard errors in parentheses. All variables in model coded to range from zero to one. Data are weighted. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1, two-tailed.
Racial Attitudes and Trump Approval Ratings.
| White Consciousness | 0.166*** |
| (0.028) | |
| Average of Hispanic and Muslim Thermometers | −0.080*** |
| (0.031) | |
| Party ID | 0.498*** |
| (0.026) | |
| Negative National Economic Evaluations | −0.582*** |
| (0.030) | |
| Education | −0.059*** |
| (0.023) | |
| Age | 0.000 |
| (0.000) | |
| Female | −0.030** |
| (0.013) | |
| Constant | 0.470*** |
| (0.040) | |
| Observations | 1854 |
| R-squared | 0.732 |
Source: 2018 ANES Pilot Study.
Note: Table entries are OLS coefficients. Standard errors in parentheses. All variables in model coded to range from zero to one. Data are weighted. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, two-tailed.
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