Skip to content
Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter July 7, 2018

The Future of Demand for Food Away from Home and Prepared Food: Cohort and Age Effects in Japan

  • Soichiro Fujioka and Mototsugu Fukushige EMAIL logo

Abstract

The demand for two composite goods, food away from home (FAFH) and prepared food (PF), are trending upward in Japan as Japanese society ages. This paper estimates the demand function of FAFH and PF. We adopt the almost ideal demand system and predict the effect on future demand from age and cohort changes. We find that the age effect decreases both while the cohort effect increases the share of FAFH but decreases that of PF. Over time, the demand for FAFH gradually decreases but remains stable. The demand for PF has been decreasing as of 2010 and more quickly than for FAFH. The reason is that both the age effect and the dynamic population trend decrease the demand for both goods, while the cohort effect slows the decrease in demand for FAFH but accelerates that for PF.

Funding statement: This research was financially supported by Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant Numbers JP15H03336 and JP15K12461.

References

Angulo, AM, JM Gil, and J. Mur. 2007. “Spanish Demand for Food Away from Home: Analysis of Panel Data.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 58 (2): 289–307.10.1111/j.1477-9552.2007.00106.xSearch in Google Scholar

Bai, J, TI Wahl, BT Lohmar, and J. Huang. 2010. “Food Away from Home in Beijing: Effects of Wealth, Time and “Free” Meals.” China Economic Review 21 (3): 432–441.10.1016/j.chieco.2010.04.003Search in Google Scholar

Barnett, WA, and A. Serletis. 2008. “Consumer Preferences and Demand Systems.” Journal of Econometrics 147 (2): 210–224.10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.09.009Search in Google Scholar

Binkley, JK. 2006. “The Effect of Demographic, Economic, and Nutrition Factors on the Frequency of Food Away from Home.” Journal of Consumer Affairs 40 (2): 372–391.10.1111/j.1745-6606.2006.00062.xSearch in Google Scholar

Byrne, PJ, O Capps Jr., and A. Saha 1996. “Analysis of Food-away-from-Home Expenditure Patterns for US Households, 1982–89.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78 (3): 614–627.10.2307/1243279Search in Google Scholar

Deaton, A, and J. Muellbauer. 1980a. “An Almost Ideal Demand System.” American Economic Review 70 (3): 312–326.Search in Google Scholar

Deaton, A, and J. Muellbauer. 1980b. Economics and Consumer Behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511805653Search in Google Scholar

Dong, D, PJ Byrne, A Saha, and Jr O Capps. 2000. “Determinants of Food-away-from-Home (FAFH) Visit Frequency: A Count-Data Approach.” Journal of Restaurant & Foodservice Marketing 4 (1): 31–46.10.1300/J061v04n01_04Search in Google Scholar

Glenn, ND. 2005. Cohort Analysis. Vol. 5. Thousand Oaks, CA, USA: SAGE Publications.10.4135/9781412983662Search in Google Scholar

Horton, S, and C. Campbell. 1991. “Wife's Employment, Food Expenditures, and Apparent Nutrient Intake: Evidence from Canada.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73 (3): 784–794.10.2307/1242831Search in Google Scholar

Huffman, WE. 2011. “Household Production and the Demand for Food and Other Inputs: US Evidence.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 36 (3): 465–487.Search in Google Scholar

Jekanowski, MD, JK Binkley, and J. Eales. 2001. “Convenience, Accessibility, and the Demand for Fast Food.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 26 (1): 58–74.Search in Google Scholar

Jensen, HH, and ST. Yen 1996 “Food Expenditures Away from Home by Type of Meal.” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 44 (1): 67–80.10.1111/j.1744-7976.1996.tb00143.xSearch in Google Scholar

Keng, SH, and CH. Lin 2005. “Wives' Value of Time and Food Consumed Away from Home in Taiwan.” Asian Economic Journal 19 (3): 319–334.10.1111/j.1467-8381.2005.00215.xSearch in Google Scholar

Liu, M, P Kasteridis, and ST. Yen. 2013. “Who are Consuming Food Away from Home and Where? Results from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys.” European Review of Agricultural Economics 40 (1): 191–213.10.1093/erae/jbs012Search in Google Scholar

Ma, H, J Huang, F Fuller, and S. Rozelle. 2006. “Getting Rich and Eating Out: Consumption of Food Away from Home in Urban China.” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 54 (1): 101–119.10.1111/j.1744-7976.2006.00040.xSearch in Google Scholar

Manrique, J, and HH Jensen. 1998. “Working Women and Expenditures on Food Away‐From‐Home and At‐Home in Spain.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 49 (3): 321–333.10.1111/j.1477-9552.1998.tb01275.xSearch in Google Scholar

Matsuda, T. 2001a. Model Analysis for Food Demand System. Association of Agriculture and Forestry Statistics. Tokyo: Norin-Tokei-Kyokai. [in Japanese]Search in Google Scholar

Matsuda, T. 2001b. “Statistical Analysis on the Structural Change in Demand for Food at Home, Food Away from Home and Prepared Food.” Journal of Rural Problems 141: 261–264. [in Japanese].Search in Google Scholar

Matsuda, T. 2004. “Incorporating Generalized Marginal Budget Shares in a Mixed Demand System.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86 (4): 1117–1126.10.1111/j.0002-9092.2004.00657.xSearch in Google Scholar

Matsuda, T. 2005a. “Differential Demand Systems: A Further Look at Barten's Synthesis.” Southern Economic Journal 71: 607–619.10.2307/20062064Search in Google Scholar

Matsuda, T. 2005b. “Forms of Scale Curves and Differential Inverse Demand Systems.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87 (3): 786–795.10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00762.xSearch in Google Scholar

Matsuda, T. 2006a. “A Box–Cox Consumer Demand System Nesting the Almost Ideal Model.” International Economic Review 47 (3): 937–949.10.1111/j.1468-2354.2006.00400.xSearch in Google Scholar

Matsuda, T. 2006b. “Linear Approximations to the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System.” Empirical Economics 31 (3): 663–675.10.1007/s00181-005-0044-3Search in Google Scholar

McCracken, VA, and JA. Brandt. 1987. “Household Consumption of Food-away-from-Home: Total Expenditure and by Type of Food Facility.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 69 (2): 274–284.10.2307/1242277Search in Google Scholar

McDowell, DR, JE Allen-Smith, and PE. McLean-Meyinsse. 1997. “Food Expenditures and Socioeconomic Characteristics: Focus on Income Class.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79 (5): 1444–1451.10.2307/1244359Search in Google Scholar

Mihalopoulos, VG, and MP. Demoussis. 2001. “Greek Household Consumption of Food Away from Home: A Microeconometric Approach.” European Review of Agricultural Economics 28 (4): 421–432.10.1093/erae/28.4.421Search in Google Scholar

Min, I, C Fang, and Q. Li. 2004. “Investigation of Patterns in Food-away-from-Home Expenditure for China.” China Economic Review 15 (4): 457–476.10.1016/j.chieco.2004.06.008Search in Google Scholar

Mutlu, S, and A. Gracia. 2006. “Spanish Food Expenditure Away from Home (FAFH): By Type of Meal.” Applied Economics 38 (9): 1037–1047.10.1080/00036840500399750Search in Google Scholar

Nayga, RM. 1995. “Presence of Children and Household Food Expenditures at Home and Away from Home.” International Journal of Consumer Studies 19 (3): 235–245.10.1111/j.1470-6431.1995.tb00547.xSearch in Google Scholar

Nayga, RM. 1998. “A Sample Selection Model for Prepared Food Expenditures.” Applied Economics 30 (3): 345–352.10.1080/000368498325868Search in Google Scholar

Nayga, RM, and O. Capps. 1992. “Analysis of Food Away from Home and Food at Home Consumption: A Systems Approach.” Journal of Food Distribution Research 23 (3): 1–10.Search in Google Scholar

Ogundari, K, AO Aladejimokun, and SF. Arifalo. 2015. “Household Demand for Food Away from Home (FAFH) in Nigeria: The Role of Education.” Journal of Developing Areas 49 (2): 247–262.10.1353/jda.2015.0004Search in Google Scholar

Park, JL, and O. Capps. 1997. “Demand for Prepared Meals by US Households.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79 (3): 814–824.10.2307/1244423Search in Google Scholar

Piggott, NE. 2003. “The Nested PIGLOG Model: An Application to US Food Demand.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85 (1): 1–15.10.1111/1467-8276.00099Search in Google Scholar

Pol, LG, and S. Pak. 1995. “Consumer Unit Types and Expenditures on Food Away from Home.” Journal of Consumer Affairs 29 (2): 403–428.10.1111/j.1745-6606.1995.tb00054.xSearch in Google Scholar

Ray, R. 1980. “Analysis of a Time Series of Household Expenditure Surveys for India.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 62 (4): 595–602.10.2307/1924784Search in Google Scholar

Ray, R. 1982. “The Testing and Estimation of Complete Demand Systems on Household Budget Surveys: An Application of AIDS.” European Economic Review 17 (3): 349–369.10.1016/S0014-2921(82)80069-XSearch in Google Scholar

Richards, TJ, and L. Mancino. 2013. “Demand for Food-away-from-Home: A Multiple-Discrete–Continuous Extreme Value Model.” European Review of Agricultural Economics 41 (1): 111–133.10.1093/erae/jbt008Search in Google Scholar

Sasaki, K. 1996. “Consumer Demand in Japan: An Analysis Using the Deaton-Muellbauer System.” Japan and the World Economy 8 (3): 335–351.10.1016/0922-1425(95)00015-1Search in Google Scholar

Shigeno, R. 2004. “Food Demand and Outsourcing of Housework: An Approach by Demand System.” Journal of Personal Finance and Economics 19: 147–158. [in Japanese].Search in Google Scholar

Soberon-Ferrer, H, and R. Dardis. 1991. “Determinants of Household Expenditures for Services.” Journal of Consumer Research 17 (4): 385–397.10.1086/208565Search in Google Scholar

Stewart, H, N Blisard, D Jolliffe, and S. Bhuyan. 2005. “The Demand for Food Away from Home: Do Other Preferences Compete with Our Desire to Eat Healthfully?.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 30 (3): 520–536.Search in Google Scholar

Stewart, H, and ST. Yen. 2004. “Changing Household Characteristics and the Away-from-Home Food Market: A Censored Equation System Approach.” Food Policy 29 (6): 643–658.10.1016/j.foodpol.2004.10.003Search in Google Scholar

Stone, R. 1954. “Linear Expenditure Systems and Demand Analysis: An Application to the Pattern of British Demand.” Economic Journal 64 (Sep.): 511–527.10.2307/2227743Search in Google Scholar

Yen, ST. 1993. “Working Wives and Food Away from Home: The Box-Cox Double Hurdle Model.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75 (4): 884–895.10.2307/1243976Search in Google Scholar

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Household Projections for Japan: 2010-2035 (http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-ajsetai/e/hhprj2013/t-page_e.asp)Search in Google Scholar

Statistics Japan. Family Income and Expenditure SurveySearch in Google Scholar

Statistics Japan. Consumer Price Index (http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/ListE.do?bid=000001033700&cycode=0)Search in Google Scholar

Published Online: 2018-07-07

© 2019 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 28.3.2024 from https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/jafio-2017-0038/pdf
Scroll to top button