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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg July 8, 2016

Forward or Backward Looking? The Economic Discourse and the Observed Reality

  • Jochen Lüdering EMAIL logo and Peter Winker

Abstract

Is academic research anticipating economic shake-ups or merely reflecting the past? Exploiting the corpus of articles published in the Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) for the years 1949 to 2010, this pilot study proposes a quantitative framework for addressing these questions. The framework comprises two steps. First, methods from computational linguistics are used to identify relevant topics and their relative importance over time. In particular, Latent Dirichlet Analysis is applied to the corpus after some preparatory work. Second, for some of the topics which are closely related to specific economic indicators, the developments of topic weights and indicator values are confronted in dynamic regression and VAR models. The results indicate that for some topics of interest, the discourse in the journal leads developments in the real economy, while for other topics it is the other way round.

JEL: B23; C22; C49

Acknowledgments

We want to thank Andreas Schiermeier, Peter Reifschneider, and Christoph Funk for assistance with obtaining and preprocessing the data. We are grateful for the funding provided by Lucius & Lucius and to Jochen Kothe at Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen for providing access to digizeitschriften.de. Last but not least, we want to thank three anonymous referees for their comments and the editor Joachim Wagner for facilitating the refereeing process.

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Appendices

A German stopwords

The following stopwords are removed from the vocabulary. The list is supplied by the r package tm.

aber alle allem allen aller alles als also am an ander andere anderem anderen anderer anderes anderm andern anderr anders auch auf aus bei bin bis bist da damit dann der den des dem die das daß derselbe derselben denselben desselben demselben dieselbe dieselben dasselbe dazu dein deine deinem deinen deiner deines denn derer dessen dich dir du dies diese diesem diesen dieser dieses doch dort durch ein eine einem einen einer eines einig einige einigem einigen einiger einiges einmal er ihn ihm es etwas euer eure eurem euren eurer eures für gegen gewesen hab habe haben hat hatte hatten hier hin hinter ich mich mir ihr ihre ihrem ihren ihrer ihres euch im in indem ins ist jede jedem jeden jeder jedes jene jenem jenen jener jenes jetzt kann kein keine keinem keinen keiner keines können könnte machen man manche manchem manchen mancher manches mein meine meinem meinen meiner meines mit muss musste nach nicht nichts noch nun nur ob oder ohne sehr sein seine seinem seinen seiner seines selbst sich sie ihnen sind so solche solchem solchen solcher solches soll sollte sondern sonst über um und uns unse unsem unsen unser unses unter viel vom von vor während war waren warst was weg weil weiter welche welchem welchen welcher welches wenn werde werden wie wieder will wir wird wirst wo wollen wollte würde würden zu zum zur zwar zwischen.

B Tables

Table 3:

List of volumes.

VolYearVolYearVolYearVolYearVolYearVolYearVolYear
118633818827419001111918147193818419702212001
218643918827519001121919148193818519712222002
318644018837619011131919149193918671/722232003
418654118837719011141920150193918772/732242004
518654218847819021151920151194018819752252005
618664318847919021161921152194018919752262006
718664418858019031171921153194119075/762272007
818674518858119031181922154194119176/772282008
918674618868219041191922155194219277/782292009
1018684718868319041201923156194219319782302010
111868481887841905121192315719431941979
121869491887851905122192415819431951980
131869501888861906123192515919441961981
141870511888871906124192616019441971982
151870r1888881907125192616119491981983
161871521889891907126192716219501991984
171871531889901908127192716319512001985
181872541890911908128192816419522011986
19187255189092190912919281651953202r1986
201873561891931909130192916619542031987
211873571891941910131192916719552041988
221874581892951910132193016819562051988
231874591892961911133193016919582061989
241875601893971911134193117019582071990
251875611893981912135193117119592081991
261876621894991912r193117219602091992
2718766318941001913136193217319612101992
2818776418951011913137193217419622111993
2918776518951021914138193317519632121993
3018786618961031914139193317619642131994
3118786718961041915140193417719652141995
3218796818971051915141193517819652151996
3318796918971061916142193517919662161997
3418797018981071916143193618019672171998
3518807118981081917144193618167/682181999
3618817218991091917145193718268/692191999
3718817318991101918146193718369/702202000

Notes on the list of volumes

181 Issue 4 was the first to appear in 1968 (March)

182 Issue 4–5 was the first to appear in 1969 (March)

183 Issue 5 was the first to appear in 1970 (February)

184 completely appeared in 1970

185 completely appeared in 1971

186 Issue 3 was the first to appear in 1972 (February)

187 Issue 2 was the first to appear in 1973 (January)

188 Issue 1 Appeared in 1973 (December), Issue 2–5 appeared in 1974 (January to November), Issue 6 appeared in 1975 (February)

190 All issues appeared in 1976 (contrary to the available meta data)

191 Issue 4 was the first to appear in 1977 (February)

192 Issue 5 was the first to appear in 1978

C Topic probabilities

The Figure 4 shows the development of probabilities for the key topics between 1948 and 2010.

Figure 4: Topic probabilities.
Figure 4:

Topic probabilities.

D Further topics

The following pages show additional topics identified by the LDA algorithm. In addition to the key topics used in the analysis, there are further topics in the field of inflation (Figure 5), trade (Figure 6), debt (Figure 7) unemployment (Figure 8) and interest rates (Figure 9). This list of of fields is far from being exhaustive. There are a variety of other topics discussed in the journal (see examples in Figure 10), which are not easily operationalized as the discussion of capitalism and Marxism (Topic 100) or may not very interesting from an economic point of view (e. g. “terms describing a table” in Topic 165).

Figure 5: Estimated topics related to inflation.
Figure 5:

Estimated topics related to inflation.

Figure 6: Estimated topics related to trade.
Figure 6:

Estimated topics related to trade.

Figure 7: Estimated topics related to debt.
Figure 7:

Estimated topics related to debt.

Figure 8: Estimated topics related to unemployment.
Figure 8:

Estimated topics related to unemployment.

Figure 9: Addtional estimated topic related to interest rates.
Figure 9:

Addtional estimated topic related to interest rates.

Figure 10: Example for “unrelated topics” estimated by the algorithm.
Figure 10:

Example for “unrelated topics” estimated by the algorithm.

While Topic 144, which we used in the analysis, is narrowly focused on inflation and the inflation rate, there are further topics related to inflation (Figure 5), Topic 119 is concerned with geldpoliti [en: monetary policy], as well as money supply and expansionary policy. Topic 134 is concerned with shocks, with inflation being a prominent term. Topic 142 is the English language equivalent to Topic 119 (monetary policy). Figure 6 shows further topics associated with international trade. The German equivalent (topic 36) to the topic we selected (Topic 1) is centered around “ausland” and “inland” [en: foreign and domestic] and not as narrow as the english original. Topic 44 is loosely concerned with trade, with terms “handelspoliti” [en: trade policy] and “aussenhandelstheori” [en: theory of international trade] popping into the eye. Price differentiation [ger: preisdifferenzier], product [ger: erzeugnis] as well as terms relating to foreign and domestic are at the center of topic 86. Figures 7 and 8 show additional topics related to debt and unemployment respectively. Apart from topic 191, which is concerned with interest rates in the narrow sense and consequently used in our analysis, only Topic 120 (Figure 9) appears to be somewhat related but talks more about central banking.

In the regression analysis it would be possible to combine two or more topics, which makes the analysis broader. Prior research has shown that this does not improve our results. It can be assumed that narrow topics are best at reflecting narrow economic ideas.

Received: 2016-3-15
Revised: 2016-5-17
Accepted: 2016-5-31
Published Online: 2016-7-8
Published in Print: 2016-8-1

©2016 by De Gruyter Mouton

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