Forward or Backward Looking? The Economic Discourse and the Observed Reality

A German stopwords

The following stopwords are removed from the vocabulary. The list is supplied by the r package tm.

aber alle allem allen aller alles als also am an ander andere anderem anderen anderer anderes anderm andern anderr anders auch auf aus bei bin bis bist da damit dann der den des dem die das daß derselbe derselben denselben desselben demselben dieselbe dieselben dasselbe dazu dein deine deinem deinen deiner deines denn derer dessen dich dir du dies diese diesem diesen dieser dieses doch dort durch ein eine einem einen einer eines einig einige einigem einigen einiger einiges einmal er ihn ihm es etwas euer eure eurem euren eurer eures für gegen gewesen hab habe haben hat hatte hatten hier hin hinter ich mich mir ihr ihre ihrem ihren ihrer ihres euch im in indem ins ist jede jedem jeden jeder jedes jene jenem jenen jener jenes jetzt kann kein keine keinem keinen keiner keines können könnte machen man manche manchem manchen mancher manches mein meine meinem meinen meiner meines mit muss musste nach nicht nichts noch nun nur ob oder ohne sehr sein seine seinem seinen seiner seines selbst sich sie ihnen sind so solche solchem solchen solcher solches soll sollte sondern sonst über um und uns unse unsem unsen unser unses unter viel vom von vor während war waren warst was weg weil weiter welche welchem welchen welcher welches wenn werde werden wie wieder will wir wird wirst wo wollen wollte würde würden zu zum zur zwar zwischen.

B Tables

Notes on the list of volumes

181 Issue 4 was the first to appear in 1968 (March)

182 Issue 4–5 was the first to appear in 1969 (March)

183 Issue 5 was the first to appear in 1970 (February)

184 completely appeared in 1970

185 completely appeared in 1971

186 Issue 3 was the first to appear in 1972 (February)

187 Issue 2 was the first to appear in 1973 (January)

188 Issue 1 Appeared in 1973 (December), Issue 2–5 appeared in 1974 (January to November), Issue 6 appeared in 1975 (February)

190 All issues appeared in 1976 (contrary to the available meta data)

191 Issue 4 was the first to appear in 1977 (February)

192 Issue 5 was the first to appear in 1978

C Topic probabilities

The Figure 4 shows the development of probabilities for the key topics between 1948 and 2010.

Figure 4:

Topic probabilities.

D Further topics

The following pages show additional topics identified by the LDA algorithm. In addition to the key topics used in the analysis, there are further topics in the field of inflation (Figure 5), trade (Figure 6), debt (Figure 7) unemployment (Figure 8) and interest rates (Figure 9). This list of of fields is far from being exhaustive. There are a variety of other topics discussed in the journal (see examples in Figure 10), which are not easily operationalized as the discussion of capitalism and Marxism (Topic 100) or may not very interesting from an economic point of view (e. g. “terms describing a table” in Topic 165).

Figure 5:

Estimated topics related to inflation.

Figure 6:

Estimated topics related to trade.

Figure 7:

Estimated topics related to debt.

Figure 8:

Estimated topics related to unemployment.

Figure 9:

Addtional estimated topic related to interest rates.

Figure 10:

Example for “unrelated topics” estimated by the algorithm.

While Topic 144, which we used in the analysis, is narrowly focused on inflation and the inflation rate, there are further topics related to inflation (Figure 5), Topic 119 is concerned with geldpoliti [en: monetary policy], as well as money supply and expansionary policy. Topic 134 is concerned with shocks, with inflation being a prominent term. Topic 142 is the English language equivalent to Topic 119 (monetary policy). Figure 6 shows further topics associated with international trade. The German equivalent (topic 36) to the topic we selected (Topic 1) is centered around “ausland” and “inland” [en: foreign and domestic] and not as narrow as the english original. Topic 44 is loosely concerned with trade, with terms “handelspoliti” [en: trade policy] and “aussenhandelstheori” [en: theory of international trade] popping into the eye. Price differentiation [ger: preisdifferenzier], product [ger: erzeugnis] as well as terms relating to foreign and domestic are at the center of topic 86. Figures 7 and 8 show additional topics related to debt and unemployment respectively. Apart from topic 191, which is concerned with interest rates in the narrow sense and consequently used in our analysis, only Topic 120 (Figure 9) appears to be somewhat related but talks more about central banking.

In the regression analysis it would be possible to combine two or more topics, which makes the analysis broader. Prior research has shown that this does not improve our results. It can be assumed that narrow topics are best at reflecting narrow economic ideas.