Abstract
We predict university dropout using random forests based on conditional inference trees and on a broad German data set covering a wide range of aspects of student life and study courses. We model the dropout decision as a binary classification (graduate or dropout) and focus on very early prediction of student dropout by stepwise modeling students’ transition from school (pre-study) over the study-decision phase (decision phase) to the first semesters at university (early study phase). We evaluate how predictive performance changes over the three models, and observe a substantially increased performance when including variables from the first study experiences, resulting in an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.86. Important predictors are the final grade at secondary school, and also determinants associated with student satisfaction and their subjective academic self-concept and self-assessment. A direct outcome of this research is the provision of information to universities wishing to implement early warning systems and more personalized counseling services to support students at risk of dropping out during an early stage of study.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under Grant number 01PX16006.
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Appendix
Participants, temporary leavers, last participation, and final panel leavers in the current SUF (LIfBi, 2017, and own calculations).
| wave | instrument | partic. survey | temp. leavers | last partic. | final panel leavers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | CATI (+test) | 17,910 | 0 | 1,299 | 1299 |
| 2nd | CAWI | 12,273 | 5,591 | 594 | 594 |
| 3rd | CATI | 13,113 | 4,560 | 561 | 561 |
| 4th | CAWI | 11,202 | 6,424 | 638 | 638 |
| 5th | CATI (+test) | 12,694 | 3,444 | 765 | 765 |
| 6th | CAWI | 10,183 | 7,039 | 1,041 | 1,041 |
| 7th | CATI (+test) | 9,547 | 7,161 | 774 | 138 |
| 8th | CAWI | 8,629 | 6,024 | 1,156 | 338 |
| 9th | CATI | 10,096 | 4,321 | 1,992 | 95 |
| 10th | CATI | 9,090 | 4,192 | 9,090 | 0 |
| sum | 17,910 | 5,469 | |||
Difference in the distribution of Y according to some covariates in the leaver and retained population. Here, categorical variables with low number of missing values are appropriate to be tested.
| retained persons | panel leavers | total sample | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dropout | graduate | dropout | graduate | dropout | graduate | |
| gender | ||||||
| male | 5.9% | 67.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 48.9% |
| female | 4.5% | 70.9% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 52.4% |
| difference | 1.4% | –3.3% | 1.3% | –2.8% | 1.4% | –3.5% |
| subject field (*difference for mathematics and linguistics) | ||||||
| engineering | 7.1% | 73.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 52.2% |
| mathematics | 5.9% | 71.5% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 53.4% |
| law | 4.7% | 74.8% | 3.5% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 52.7% |
| linguistics | 4.7% | 65.9% | 4.1% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 49.1% |
| difference* | 1.2% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 4.3% |
| immigration | ||||||
| no | 4.9% | 71.1% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 53.1% |
| yes | 5.7% | 64.3% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 43.9% |
| difference | –0.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 1.6% | –0.4% | 9.2% |
| family life | ||||||
| with biol. par. | 4.8% | 70.4% | 4.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 52.1% |
| else | 6.5% | 64.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 44.5% |
| difference | –1.7% | 5.9% | –2.6% | 3.0% | –2.1% | 7.6% |
| type of school attended | ||||||
| up. sec. educ. | 3.9% | 70.4% | 3.7% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 53.1% |
| other types | 9.2% | 67.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 45.6% |
| difference | –5.3% | 3.3% | –2.8% | 2.8% | –4.3% | 7.5% |
| completed vocational training before study | ||||||
| yes | 8.5% | 71.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 49.8% |
| no | 4.1% | 69.2% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 51.4% |
| difference | 4.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | –0.8% | 4.0% | –1.6% |
| dropout from training before university | ||||||
| yes | 9.5% | 62.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 40.4% |
| no | 4.9% | 69.9% | 4.3% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 51.4% |
| difference | 4.6% | –7.0% | 3.2% | –2.1% | 4.0% | –11.0% |
Tests on mean difference and test on independence between some determinants and the status of panel leavers. We test variables with low number of missing values.
| known status | unknown status | p-value | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mean | std. err. | mean | std. err. | t-test on mean | chisq.test on | |
| difference | independence | |||||
| generation status | 3.61 | 0.84 | 3.53 | 0.93 | 0.012*** | 0.111 |
| immigration | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 0.095 | 0.114 |
| repeated classes | 0.23 | 0.50 | 0.22 | 0.49 | 0.543 | 0.899 |
| birth year | 1988.16 | 4.26 | 1988.42 | 4.11 | 0.116 | 0.402 |
| gender | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.100 | 0.112 |
| vocational training | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.036*** | 0.033*** |
| dropout from training before study | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.609 | 0.663 |
| at least one field change | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0.986 | 1 |
| at least one uni change | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.807 | 0.909 |
| at least one degree change | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0,063 | 0.157 |
| subject field | 0.197 | |||||
| family life | 0.85 | 0.36 | 0.85 | 0.36 | 0.760 | 0.800 |
| school leaving qualification | 1.76 | 0.54 | 1.79 | 0.50 | 0.310 | 0.09 |
| direct costs of higher education | 3.42 | 1.03 | 3.36 | 1.02 | 0.124 | 0.169 |
| informed about study | 3.58 | 0.82 | 3.58 | 0.82 | 0.983 | 0.986 |
| opportunity costs | 2.98 | 1.05 | 2.99 | 1.00 | 0.728 | 0.067 |
| mother qualification | 4.61 | 2.21 | 4.68 | 2.19 | 0.430 | 0.210 |
| father qualification | 5.02 | 2.33 | 5.01 | 2.38 | 0.893 | 0.197 |
| mother job | 50.78 | 19.86 | 51.17 | 19.82 | 0.684 | 0.988 |
| father job | 53.40 | 21.94 | 53.01 | 22.51 | 0.698 | 0.670 |
| grade on school leaving qualification | 2.39 | 0.60 | 2.37 | 0.61 | 0.3389 | 0.082 |
| type of high school | 0.74 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 0.924 | 0.961 |
| German as graduation exam | 0.77 | 0.42 | 0.78 | 0.41 | 0.741 | 0.778 |
| mathematics as graduation exam | 0.77 | 0.42 | 0.77 | 0.42 | 0.695 | 0.734 |
*** statistically significant at 5%-level
Attributes description.
| Attribute | Description (Data type) |
|---|---|
| Pre-study | |
| genstat | Generation status (numeric: from 1 = 1st generation to 4 = no immigration background) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
| immigration | Do you have an immigration background? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
| rep_class | How many class years have you ever repeated? (numeric: from 0 to 4) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9138 | |
| ger_prep | To what extent had you acquired German knowledge and skills before starting university? (numeric: from 1 = not at all to 4 = very much) |
| Number_Dropouts = 487, Number_Graduates = 6564 | |
| math_prep | To what extent had you acquired maths knowledge and skills before starting university? (numeric: from 1 = not at all to 4 = very much) |
| Number_Dropouts = 450, Number_Graduates = 5924 | |
| familylife | With whom did you spend most of your childhood up to the age of 14? (binary: 1 = with biological parents, 0 = else) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9136 | |
| school_type | Type of school attended (binary: 1 = upper secondary education, 0 = other types) |
| Number_Dropouts = 838, Number_Graduates = 8947 | |
| qualif_max | School-leaving qualification obtained (numeric: 2 = general university entrance qualification, 1 = university of applied science entrance qualification, 0 = other degrees) |
| Number_Dropouts = 870, Number_Graduates = 9136 | |
| grade_school | Approximate overall grade awarded in the school-leaving certificate (numeric: from 1 to 5) |
| Number_Dropouts = 842, Number_Graduates = 8976 | |
| exam_german | Was German an examination subject for your school-leaving qualification? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 745, Number_Graduates = 8633 | |
| exam_adv_german | German as first examination subject for your school-leaving qualification (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 752, Number_Graduates = 8669 | |
| exam_maths | Was maths an examination subject for your school-leaving qualification? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 743, Number_Graduates = 8646 | |
| exam_adv_maths | Maths as first examination subject for your school-leaving qualification (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 752, Number_Graduates = 8673 | |
| gender | Gender of the person (binary: 1 = Male or 0 = Female) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
| birthyear | Year of birth of the person (numeric: from 1950 to 1994) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
| mother_qualif | Highest mother’s general school-leaving qualification (numeric: from 0 = No school leaving qualification to 8 = Highest tertiary education) |
| Number_Dropouts = 862, Number_Graduates = 9088 | |
| mother_job | Mother’s occupation (ISEI-08) (numeric: from 11.74 to 88.96) |
| Number_Dropouts = 638, Number_Graduates = 6733 | |
| father_qualif | Highest father’s general school-leaving qualification (numeric: from 0 = No school leaving qualification to 8 = Highest tertiary education) |
| Number_Dropouts = 833, Number_Graduates = 8953 | |
| father_job | Father occupation (ISEI-08) (numeric: from 11.74 to 88.96) |
| Number_Dropouts = 677, Number_Graduates = 7184 | |
| voctrain | Completed vocational training before university (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
| fail_prestudy | Have you ever dropped out from training before university? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
| Decision phase | |
| fieldofchoice | Enrolled in the subject of first choice (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 621, Number_Graduates = 7072 | |
| institofchoice | Take up the degree at the institute of higher education of choice (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 649, Number_Graduates = 7438 | |
| study_alternative | Would you rather have started something else instead of a degree? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 648, Number_Graduates = 7426 | |
| study_judge_parent | What do your parents think about the fact that you are studying? (numeric: from 1 = does not apply at all to 5 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 649, Number_Graduates = 7446 | |
| study_judge_friend | What do your friends think about the fact that you are studying? (numeric: from 1 = does not apply at all to 5 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 652, Number_Graduates = 7448 | |
| info_useful_... | Usefulness of information received from parents, friends, current university students, school teachers, professionals employed in the field of interest, media, university counseling, literature, school events, sneak peak at university, job agencies, companies etc. (numeric: from 0 = not used to 4 = very helpful) |
| Number_Dropouts = 470, Number_Graduates = 6180 | |
| study_restrict | Is the study subject to admission restrictions or a selection procedure? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 762, Number_Graduates = 7976 | |
| Early study phase | |
| satisf_enjoy | Really enjoy the studied subject (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 399, Number_Graduates = 7866 | |
| satisf_conditions | Wish better study conditions (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 398, Number_Graduates = 7865 | |
| satisf_match | Degree course and other obligations hard to match (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 399, Number_Graduates = 7865 | |
| satisf_whole | On the whole, satisfied with actual studies (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 399, Number_Graduates = 7866 | |
| satisf_frustrating | External circumstances of study are frustrating (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 397, Number_Graduates = 7846 | |
| satisf_kill | Degree course is killing me (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 399, Number_Graduates = 7864 | |
| satisf_interesting | Degree course is really interesting (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 399, Number_Graduates = 7864 | |
| satisf_concerns | Concerns of students are not taken into account sufficiently (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 397, Number_Graduates = 7849 | |
| satisf_tired | Degree course often makes feel tired and exhausted (numeric: from 0 = does not apply to 10 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 399, Number_Graduates = 7865 | |
| partic_people | Participation in university events aimed at getting to know people (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 753, Number_Graduates = 7937 | |
| partic_orga | Participation in university events on study organization (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 746, Number_Graduates = 7865 | |
| partic_facil | Participation in university events on the use of central facilities (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 740, Number_Graduates = 7789 | |
| partic_course | Participation in university events on bridging courses (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 748, Number_Graduates = 7867 | |
| partic_acadskills | Participation in university events on academic skills (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 744, Number_Graduates = 7769 | |
| preparation | How can you rate your preparation at the start of the university in work techniques, fundamental academic methods etc.? (numeric: from 0 = bad to 4 = good) |
| Number_Dropouts = 548, Number_Graduates = 7132 | |
| skills_prep | Necessary knowledge acquired in maths, German, English and computer science before university (numeric: from 1 = not at all to 4 = very much) |
| Number_Dropouts = 544, Number_Graduates = 7096 | |
| workload_match | Study progress (number of courses, credits earned) match to the curriculum plan (numeric: from 1 = much less to 5 = many more) |
| Number_Dropouts = 388, Number_Graduates = 6944 | |
| performance_eval | Satisfaction with the academic performances till yet (numeric: from 1 = does not apply at all to 4 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 426, Number_Graduates = 6999 | |
| probsuccess | Your opinion on the probability that you will graduate (numeric: from 1 = very unlikely to 5 = very likely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 425, Number_Graduates = 6978 | |
| selfconcept | Perception of your talent for studying (numeric: from 1 = low to 7 = high) |
| Number_Dropouts = 423, Number_Graduates = 6921 | |
| study_informed | How well you are informed about the possibilities, limitations etc for your degree course? (numeric: from 1 = very poor to 1 = very good) |
| Number_Dropouts = 856, Number_Graduates = 9124 | |
| socint_instructors | Acceptance by instructors and getting along well with them (numeric: from 1 = does not apply to 4 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 426, Number_Graduates = 6998 | |
| socint_students | Successful in establishing contacts and getting along well with classmates (numeric: from 1 = does not apply to 4 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 425, Number_Graduates = 6986 | |
| commit_necessary | Commitment to degree course: Do no more than necessary (numeric: from 1 = does not apply to 5 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 424, Number_Graduates = 6977 | |
| commit_enjoy | Commitment to degree course: enjoyment of degree program (numeric: from 1 = does not apply to 5 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 424, Number_Graduates = 6962 | |
| commit_demands | Commitment to degree course: High demands on self (numeric: from 1 = does not apply to 5 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 423, Number_Graduates = 6954 | |
| commit_identificat | Commitment to degree course: Identification with degree program (numeric: from 1 = does not apply to 5 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 421, Number_Graduates = 6938 | |
| helplessness | You think you will never get better grades (numeric: from 1 = does not apply to 5 = applies completely) |
| Number_Dropouts = 420, Number_Graduates = 6921 | |
| job_semester | Number of hours spent in a week during semester time for employment (numeric: from 0 to 60) |
| Number_Dropouts = 434, Number_Graduates = 7064 | |
| study_semester | Number of hours spent in a week during semester time for study-oriented activities (numeric: from 0 to 60) |
| Number_Dropouts = 434, Number_Graduates = 7069 | |
| job_break | Number of hours spent in a week during semester break for employment (numeric: from 0 to 60) |
| Number_Dropouts = 434, Number_Graduates = 7061 | |
| study_break | Number of hours spent in a week during semester break for study-oriented activities (numeric: from 0 to 60) |
| Number_Dropouts = 434, Number_Graduates = 7059 | |
| costs_direct | How difficult is it to pay for direct costs of higher education? (numeric: from 1 = very difficult to 5= very easy) |
| Number_Dropouts = 858, Number_Graduates = 9119 | |
| costs_opportunity | Limitation of the possibilities to earn own money and supporting yourself up until graduation (numeric: from 1 = not at all to 1 = a lot) |
| Number_Dropouts = 857, Number_Graduates = 9110 | |
| financialaid_bafoeg | Currently receive student financial aid (BAföG)? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 201, Number_Graduates = 3093 | |
| funding | Amount of money at your disposal on average each month in Euros (numeric: from 0 to 10900) |
| Number_Dropouts = 387, Number_Graduates = 6899 | |
| change_field | Have you ever changed the study field at least once in the past? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
| change_uni | Have you ever changed the university type at least once in the past? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
| change_degree | Have you ever changed the type of your degree at least once in the past? (binary: 0 = No, 1 = Yes) |
| Number_Dropouts = 871, Number_Graduates = 9139 | |
Supplemental Material
The online version of this article offers supplementary material (DOI:https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2019-0006).
© 2020 Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH, Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg, Berlin/Boston
