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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter March 18, 2010

Validation of a model to predict hospitalization due to RSV of infants born at 33–35 weeks' gestation

  • Xavier Carbonell-Estrany , Eric A.F. Simões , John R. Fullarton , Cyril Ferdynus , Jean-Bernard Gouyon and The European RSV Risk Factor Study Group
From the journal


Background: A model to predict hospitalization due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) of infants born at 33– 35 weeks' gestation was developed using seven risk factors from the Spanish FLIP study “birth ±10 weeks from the beginning of the RSV season”, “birth weight”, “breast fed ≤2 months”, “number of siblings ≥2 years”, “number of family members with atopy”, “number of family members with wheezing”, and “gender”. The aim of this study was to validate the model using French data.

Methods: The FLIP model [predictive accuracy 71%, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) 0.791] was tested against the French data (77 hospitalized infants with RSV born at 33–35 weeks and 154 age-matched controls) using discriminatory function analysis by applying the FLIP coefficients to the French data and by generating the seven variable model from the French data.

Results: Applying the FLIP coefficients to the French dataset, the model correctly classified 69% of cases (ROC 0.627). The predictive power increased to 73% (ROC 0.654) when “number of siblings ≥2 years” was substituted for “number of children at school”. The number needed to treat (NNT) in order to prevent 70% of hospitalizations was 18. The model derived using French data could correctly classify 62% of cases in the French data (ROC 0.658).

Conclusions: The model was successfully validated and may potentially optimize immunoprophylaxis in French infants born at 33–35 week's gestation.

Corresponding author: Jean-Bernard Gouyon Neonatal and Pediatric Intensive Care Unit University of Dijon 21079 Dijon Cedex/France

Received: 2009-12-11
Revised: 2010-1-20
Accepted: 2010-1-20
Published Online: 2010-03-18
Published Online: 2010-03-18
Published in Print: 2010-07-01

©2010 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin New York

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