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Various applications to a more realistic baseball simulator

David Beaudoin

Abstract

This paper develops a simulator for matches in Major League Baseball (MLB). Aspects of the approach that are studied include the introduction of base-running probabilities which were obtained through a large data set, and the simulation of nine possible outcomes for each at-bat. Various applications to the simulator are investigated, such as the definition of a measure of the ability of a batter/pitcher, in-play strategy and the determination of the optimal batting order for a given team.


Corresponding author: David Beaudoin, Associate Professor, Département Opérations et Systèmes de Décision, Faculté des Sciences de l’Administration, Pavillon Palasis-Prince, Bureau 2636, Université Laval, Québec (Québec), G1V0A6 Canada

The author has been partially supported by a research grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. A special thanks to the Mathematics and Statistics Department at Laval for the use of its computing resources.

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Published Online: 2013-08-13
Published in Print: 2013-09-01

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